History is on Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs’ Side as Big Road Favorites vs. Colts
For the fifth time in six years, the Kansas City Chiefs are 2-0. They defended homefield against the Los Angeles Chargers, but now have to go back on the road this week to face the Indianapolis Colts.
With the Chiefs looking dominant again and the Colts being winless and coming off a 24-point loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City is a 7-point favorite. Based on last week’s results, the obvious thing to do is to bet the Chiefs. However, is that the right thing to do?
Apparently so.
Since Patrick Mahomes has been the starter, the Chiefs simply don’t lose on the road as favorites. The Chiefs are 12-0 SU as road favorites since 2018, which is absolutely insane. Kansas City is an absolute machine and is nearly impossible to beat with Mahomes under center.
If I may: the @Chiefs are 6.5 point favorites. In his career Mahomes and the Chiefs are 13-0 when favored on the road. Only Troy Aikman of Cowboys in the 90s had a better start to his career in these games.. Troy and Dallas won their 1st 16 https://t.co/N9GWHGc4Sy
— trey wingo (@wingoz) September 21, 2022
However, backing the Colts on the spread may not be the worst thing in the world. In those 12 games, the Chiefs are just 6-6 against the spread. They’ve gone 2-1 in their last three, but winning in dominant fashion is more of a coin flip than just winning straight up.
Nevertheless, the Colts haven’t been the type of team to capitalize on the “underdog motivation.” Since Frank Reich took over in 2018, the Colts are 1-5 ATS as home underdogs.
There’s so many trends coming into this game, and for me, backing the Chiefs and their success is the only way to go. The Colts may be without Michael Pittman Jr. for another week, which will leave the Colts without a No. 1 receiver again.
That’s going to spell terrible news for a Colts team that is already on its last leg.
You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.