History Says to Pound the Over in Bengals vs. Chiefs

I think we can all agree that no matter what happens in the AFC Championship Game, we are in for a shootout. Between two squads, there is a ton of offensive firepower and not the greatest defenses to try and stop them. 

The Chiefs are coming off one of the most impressive offensive performances in recent memory with a 42-36 overtime win over the Buffalo Bills. And while the Bengals were held without a passing TD against the Titans, they have been on an offensive tear over the last four weeks.

The reason I bring this up is because of a recent stat that was brought to my attention. Since the 2005-06 season, the OVER is 9-6-1 in the AFC Championship Game. That means that the OVER has hit at a rate of 62.5 percent in the AFC Title Game since 2006. Additionally, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three years thanks to Mahomes and the Chiefs. Since the 1986-87 season, the OVER is hitting at a 60 percent clip. So, this trend is no fluke. 

Not only do the historic trends suggest a high-scoring Sunday for these two teams, the season numbers back that up. The OVER is 7-0 in the Chiefs' last seven games overall and 11-3 in their last 14 conference games. While the Bengals O/U trends favor the UNDER, the last time these two teams played, the total went OVER by 14 points. 

I, along with Betsided’s Managing Editor Ben Heisler, are expecting both these teams to rack up a ton of points on Sunday. 

The combination of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase is trouble for any defense. But, the Chiefs have a shockingly bad defense for a team in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs give up the 26th most passing yards per play, the 25th most passes per game, and the 27th most passing yards per game. They also are next to last in terms of defensive sacks, something that Burrow can take advantage of on Sunday. 

On the flip side, the Chiefs have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL and lead the league with 409.3 yards per game in total production. They also lead all others in yards per play, third-down conversion rate, and rank 2nd in fourth-down conversion rate. 

Simply put, we are looking at two of the best passing offenses in the NFL going up against one average defense and that can’t pay for a stop. If you haven’t already, I would take a long look at betting the OVER in this game at WynnBET Sportsbook. As of this writing, the total for the game is 54.5, up a point-and-a-half from the opening line of 53.

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE