History Says The Packers Are a Bad Bet To Win The Super Bowl
By Joe Summers
History teaches us a lot of cool things. For example, history teaches us that turkeys were once worshipped like Gods and Abraham Lincoln amassed a 299-1 wrestling record. But, perhaps most importantly, history teaches us that the Green Bay Packers are a bad bet to win the Super Bowl (current odds +325 at WynnBET).
There are a few historical indicators that most Super Bowl winners have in common. Let's go through them:
1. Takeaways
Every single Super Bowl winner has amassed at least 23 takeaways in the regular season. Of the remaining playoff teams, who meets that threshold this season?
The Buffalo Bills (30), Kansas City Chiefs (29), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29), Green Bay Packers (26), and Los Angeles Rams (25) all fit this criteria. So we can go ahead and cross off the 49ers, Titans, and Bengals. Better luck next year.
Green Bay meets this one. So what's next?
2. Scoring Offense
While not a perfect indicator, most Super Bowl champions have amassed a top 10 scoring offense in the regular season.
The Buccaneers (30.1 points per game), Bills (28.4), Chiefs (28.2), Bengals (27.1), Rams (27.1) and Packers (26.5) all meet this threshold.
Okay, so the Packers are still safe. What is it then?
3. Scoring Defense
Every Super Bowl winner since 2013, and 48 of 55 overall, have finished the regular season ranked in the top 10 in scoring defense.
The Bills (17.0 points allowed per game), Buccaneers (20.4), Titans (20.8), 49ers (21.2), Rams (21.3) and Chiefs (21.4) all finished in the top 10.
That's right! The Green Bay Packers finished outside the top 10 in scoring defense, one of the best historical indicators we have of Super Bowl Champions. I'll admit they were close, finishing at 13th with 21.8 points allowed per game. But close only counts in...well, you know the rest.
People lie, numbers don't. The Packers do not meet all three criteria in predicting a Super Bowl Champion and thus are a bad bet to win the Super Bowl.
Could they usurp history? Sure, they could. But we don't want to spit in the face of history when spending our dollars. You're better off taking a look at the Chiefs (+375 at WynnBET), Bills (+450), Buccaneers (+550) or Rams (+800) for your Super Bowl bets as all four teams meet all three criteria for predicting a champion.