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Holger Rune vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction and odds for Wimbledon quarterfinals

Two of the brighest young stars in tennis do battle for a spot in the Wimbledon semis. Who has the edge? Here's our expert betting breakdown!

By Reed Wallach

Jul 10, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) returns a shot against Matteo Berrettini
Jul 10, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) returns a shot against Matteo Berrettini / Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
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The No. 1 tennis player in the world Carlos Alcaraz continues to set new records for himself in his first run at Wimbledon, and now looks to reach the semifinals with a win against No. 6 Holger Rune, who is quickly emerging as a future Grand Slam champion.

Alcaraz has dazzled on grass this swing, winning his first grass tournament in the lead up to Wimbledon and has been rarely challenged so far. He faces his stiffest test though in Rune, who overpowered Grigor Dimitrov in four sets on Monday.

Alcaraz beat Rune in an exhibition in 2021 before retiring in Paris this past April down a set, so there's not a ton of history to go off of. How should we handicap this highly anticipated quarterfinals matchup?

Here are the odds and our best bet:

Holger Rune vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, spread and total

Moneyline:

  • Rune: +300
  • Alcaraz: -385

Spread:

  • Rune: +5.5 (-118)
  • Alcaraz: -5.5 (-112)

Total: 37.5 (Over -116/Under -116)

Holger Rune vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction and pick

Alcaraz is the rightful favorite, but I do believe Rune can keep up with the Spainard as he has been relentless on serve and on his game in the most meaningful points.

Given the fast surface of the All England Club, it's difficult to generate a ton of break points, and while Rune must be more careful than to face 16 break points over a five set match like he did against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina two matches ago, he saved 12 of them. He is also 5-0 in Wimbledon tiebtreaks this grand slam.

While he may come up short against the always dangerous Alcaraz, I do believe Rune can drag this match out with his ability to extend rallies and stay on point on first serve. I'm not going to call for the outright upset, but I believe we can see Rune take a set off the World No. 1 and also generate a few tiebreaks as well.

Alcaraz is incredible, but still relatively new to the surface, he has only played 16 professional matche son grass. He also has dropped a set in each of his past two matches. With Rune's ability to hold serve, this match can be a bit longer than expected.

PICK: OVER 37.5 Games

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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