Home Field Advantage Doesn't Exist in the NFL in 2021

The power of home-field advantage is a topic often debated in the world of sports betting. Some believe that home/away splits are among the more important metrics to pay attention to while others feel it’s less critical. No matter which side of the fence you fall on, this season has stood out in terms of these spits as we head into Week 13 of action. 

Following Week 12, home teams in the NFL are 78-101-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2021. That is an ATS winning percentage of just 43.6 and would be the worst mark in the Super Bowl era if the season ended today. Even with six weeks left in the regular season, the league is on track to break this record. 

The real issue that has caused this figure to be so low is the ATS record of home favorites. Home underdogs are a perfect .500 at 37-37-0. Home favorites, however, are 41-64-1 ATS or 39.0 percent. In general, favorites have had a down season across the board with a 78-101-1 ATS record. 

Getting back to the home/away splits, we must try and use this trend to our advantage. The best way to do this is to highlight teams who are the biggest offenders in terms of ATS records at home. 

First, and foremost, are the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the distinction of being the only team in the NFL yet to cover a game at home. They are 0-4 against the spread with a tough home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers up next. The spread at the moment is 11.0 in favor of the Bucs at WynnBET Sportsbook. 

There are four teams who have one home win against the spread each to look at next. The New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Kansas City Chiefs all fall into this group. The Saints are 1-3 ATS at home while the other three are 1-5. The Jaguars are on the road this week against the Rams but the other three are all playing host in Week 13. 

The Saints are 4.5 point home underdogs against the Dallas Cowboys and the Steelers are 3.5 home dogs against the Ravens. Of the trio, only the Chiefs are home favorites this weekend in a game against the unpredictable Denver Broncos. Patrick Mahomes and Co. are 10-point home favorites in a game you might want to think twice about after reading this article.