Home Run Derby best bets (Bet this longshot to stun Major League Baseball)
By Josh Yourish
The All-Star festivities kicked off over the weekend, first with the celebrity softball game and the MLB Draft, but now things will really kick into high gear with the best event of the weekend, the Home Run Derby. Some of the game's best sluggers brought their lumber out to the pacific northwest including the hometown hero, Julio Rodriguez and the two-time champ, Pete Alonso.
T-Mobile Park is not exactly a hitters paradise, so there won’t be any cheap ones in Seattle tonight. The bracket is set, so let’s get into the best bets for the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby.
Home Run Derby odds
Home Run Derby prediction and best bet
Pete Alonso is a two-time champion in this event, but he was dethroned by Julio Rodriguez last year before J-Rod eventually fell to Juan Soto in the final. Soto has relinquished the belt, so Alonso returns as the favorite. However, the Home Run Derby is a lot like boxing, especially with the timed rounds now.
There is a $2.5 million prize pool with a cool million to the winner. When Pete Alonso won it in 2019 and 2021 that prize was nearly double his contract for the entire season. Then the first time that Alonso cashed in big in 2022 he lost in the semifinal. Like the great Marvin Hagler once said, “it’s tough to get out of bed to do roadwork at 5 a.m. when you’ve been sleeping in silk pajamas.”
It’s a young man’s game first because of the endurance needed to get off that many swings during each round, but also because of the hunger to win the million dollar prize. This year Alonso is making $14.5 million from the Mets, No. 1 seed Luis Robert is $9.5 million from the White Sox, even Julio Rodriguez is making $4 million as his massive extension starts to kick in. J-Rod will be motivated, not just by the loss last year, but by his home crowd. Much like when Bryce Harper won it at Nats Park and everyone turned a blind eye to the fact that he and his dad blatantly cheated because everyone wanted him to win.
The two players that aren’t quite sleeping in silk pajamas, at least by MLB standards are No. 4 seed Adolis Garcia and No. 8 seed Adley Rutschman. Both are in their pre-arbitration years and making less than a million dollars from their clubs.
Luis Robert Jr. has been on a tear lately and is leading the field in “no-doubters” which are home runs that would be home runs in all 30 ballparks, an important stat when looking for true power. Robert is fourth in the league with 14 no-doubters and Mookie Betts is next with 11, one more than Alonso. Of Garcia’s 23 home runs only four have been no-doubters. Adley Rutschman has just 12 home runs, but seven of those have been no-dobuters including his 461-foot bomb in Minnesota yesterday.
It’s a longshot bet for sure, but Rutschman is hungry for a seven figure payday and has legit power, so I’ll take the young catcher from Baltimore.
Pick: Adley Rutschman +2000
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change