Houston Texans 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

The Houston Texans throughout the Bill O’Brien era had always been a flawed team, but they always seemed to find ways to cover them up. O’Brien had won the AFC South four times in five seasons, but they never found success in the playoffs, highlighted by a blown 24-0 lead in the AFC Division Round vs. the Chiefs in 2019.

In 2020, the camel’s back finally broke as Houston spun out to a 4-12 overall record, costing Bill O’Brien his job after an 0-4 start. 

Since the end of the year, the Texans’ offseason has been highlighted by multiple reports that seemingly gets worse by the day. They began with trade demands, followed by disturbing allegations of sexual assault from multiple women against their franchise quarterback, Deshaun Watson. They then hired Nick Caserio from the Patriots as their new General Manager, and then added David Culley who at 65 years old, is taking his first ever head coaching position.

Meanwhile on the player personnel side, the face of the franchise, JJ Watt was released and now is a member of the Arizona Cardinals. 

The Texans will have an almost completely new look in 2021, from the players on the field, to 17 new coaches brought on board. And while that may be positive news for fans looking to acquire the No. 1 overall draft pick, there doesn’t seem to be much else to feel good about.

2021 Houston Texans Outlook

After such an abominable offseason, one almost feels like a breakdown of the Texans’ upcoming year is like the equivalent of asking Abraham Lincoln’s wife, “What did you think of the play?”

Regardless of whether Watson ends up staying in Houston or not, there’s simply not enough talent or experience on this team that would indicate any sort of competitive advantage on either side of the ball. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor has had a productive career, but is a massive downgrade from Watson who led the NFL in passing yards last season and finished second in quarterback rating.

David Johnson now shares a backfield with veterans Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram, as Houston hopes for at least one back to remain healthy between a group of three that tends not to do so. The offensive line is solid with strong options at left and right tackle in Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard, but the men in the middle could all be new from last year. At wide receiver, Brandin Cooks returns after a solid 2020 season where he caught 81 passes for 1,150 yards and 6 TDs, but with Will Fuller gone, not much is in the cupboard. Keke Coutee has underwhelmed for years, and former second round receiver Anthony Miller was shipped out by the Bears after three years of inconsistency and frustration.

At tight end, there's currently more than six players on the roster vying for a few spots.

Defensively, former Bears and Illinois head coach Lovie Smith returns to the NFL as a defensive coordinator and will switch back to a 4-3, Tampa-Two style defense after being a 3-4 for more than a decade.

The aforementioned J.J. Watt is now in Arizona, which will put more pressure on Whitney Mercilus and Jacob Martin to get to the quarterback. Their run defense was last in the NFL a season ago, and the defense as a whole only forced nine turnovers all season. The Texans only had three interceptions last year, more than four below the Lions and Panthers for worst in the league.

Houston Texans 2021 NFL Draft

To make matters worse for Houston, they didn’t have a first or second round pick in the 2021 draft after acquiring Tunsil from Miami. To go from worse to even worse, they spent their first pick in the third round on a project quarterback in Stanford’s Davis Mills that may have been available in the later rounds. They may be able to add draft picks should Watson be traded to Philadelphia, Carolina, or another club, but it still remains far away in the process.

The Texans added another playmaker on offense with Michigan receiver Nico Collins, who the Texans traded up to go and get. With no fourth round selections, they added yet another tight end to the roster in Miami’s Brevin Jordan in the fifth round. Houston already has Jordan Atkins, Kahale Warring, and Pharaoh Brown likely seeing playing time, so Jordan’s opportunities may come sparingly.

Houston Texans Odds: Division (+2500), Conference (+15000), Super Bowl (+35000)

The oddsmakers at WynnBET are making the odds ever so enticing just to try and get some sort of action. At +2500 to simply win the division, the Texans sit far behind rivals Tennessee (-150), followed by the free falling Colts (+160), and Jaguars (+750).

As for winning the AFC, WynnBET has Houston all the way up at 150/1 odds, with a Super Bowl victory at a jaw-dropping 350/1 odds.

Houston Texans Regular Season Win Total: 4 WINS | OVER (+100), UNDER (-120)

Ben Heisler:

The Texans won four games all of last year, and that was with Deshaun Watson under center. Now with an added 17th game, it’s always within the realm of possibility that they eek out a few wins here and there, but I’m not buying it.

Houston is trying to sell their fanbase that they’re not punting on the season with veteran additions like Phillip Lindsay, Shaq Lawson, Jordan Jenkins and DeMarcus Walker all coming in to compete, but if their quarterback situation pivots away from a top 5 option in Watson, even a replacement level quarterback option like Tyrod Taylor will almost assuredly struggle.

From ownership to the front office down to the coaching, there are no elements of cohesion in Houston. I think we’ll see some of these veterans shipped out for much-needed draft capital if they end up playing effectively early on while the team continues to lose. 

The Texans may not be as bad as the Jaguars or Jets from a season ago, but both those teams combined for only three wins. That’s where I see the win total for Houston in 2021.

PREDICTION: UNDER 4 WINS (-120)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 3 WINS (WynnBET does not currently have odds up for Texans exact win total)

Donnavan Smoot:

If the Texans could, they would simulate past this season and start fresh in 2022. This is going to be a terrible year for Houston. Coming off a 4-12 record last year, the Texans haven’t done much to try and make a one-year turnaround. 

Houston had a middle of the pack offense last year and that was with Deshaun Watson playing. With Watson in the midst of legal issues, his status for this season is unknown. The NFL hasn’t suspended Watson and he is free to participate in training camp, but the Texans have used him everywhere except for starting quarterback.

Houston is +2500 to win the division and it will not be cashing in on those odds this year. Houston’s defense was 27th in points allowed per game (29.0). With J.J. Watt gone, the Texans’ defense will have to recreate its identity and figure out a way to improve.

New head coach David Culley is walking into a dumpster fire of a situation. Houston let all of its best players go, and the one Culley is left with doesn’t want to be there and has serious allegations against him. 

As for the season at large, Houston should expect to be picking near the top of the draft. 

PREDICTION: UNDER 4 WINS (-120)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 3 WINS (WynnBET does not currently have odds up for Texans exact win total)

Peter Dewey: 

The 2020 season couldn’t have gone worse for the Texans, as they finished with the third-worst record in the NFL, but they didn’t have their first-round pick due to the Laremy Tunsil trade with the Miami Dolphins. 

It’s a nightmare scenario, and with Deshaun Watson’s legal issues and trade request, Houston looks poised for another dreadful season in 2021. While the Carson Wentz injury may help Houston’s early-season matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, I still don’t think there are enough winnable games on the schedule for David Culley’s team. 

Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills will likely compete for the starting quarterback job, and Houston would be smart to give Mills, a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, a shot to prove if he can be an NFL quarterback at some point this season. 

Developing a rookie quarterback with a below average roster isn’t a recipe for winning football, but if the Texans can salvage something in a Watson trade, they may be able to jump start their rebuild. While the over four wins at +100 odds is tempting for this season, I just don’t see Houston being competitive enough to win five games, so I’ll ride with the under.

PREDICTION: UNDER 4 WINS (-120)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 3 WINS (WynnBET does not currently have odds up for Texans exact win total)

Iain MacMillan:

The Texans are a shell of a football team. A disastrous 2020 season was followed up by an even worse offseason. They stripped the team down to rebuild, but had no picks or capital to do anything at the NFL Draft. Quarterback Deshaun Watson demanded a trade, but the Texans waited too long to pull the trigger and now he’s up to his eyes in legal trouble which will likely cause him to miss significant time.

New head coach David Culley is entering into about as bad of a situation for a first year head coach as you could imagine. It physically pains me to look at their roster right now. Tyrod Taylor will likely be their quarterback at the start of the season, and their backfield will consist of Phillip Linday, Mark Ingram, and Rex Burkhead. After that, their roster is filled with a ton of guys you’ve likely never heard of.

It’s hard to determine who their top receivers will be. Andre Roberts, Chris Moore, Alex Erickson, Donte Moncrief, Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Chris Conley make up the group, none of which will get you excited for the Texans passing attack.

Then there’s the defense that gave up an average of 5.2 yards per carry in 2020, which is too abysmal to properly put into words.

This will be the worst team in the NFL in 2021, and I’d be surprised if they win more than a single game.

PREDICTION: UNDER 4 WINS (-120)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 1 WIN (WynnBET does not currently have odds up for Texans exact win total)

Will the Houston Texans Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-1400), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+650)

Ben Heisler: 

Three wins is not a playoff team. Three wins in a team drafting in the top three, likely finding their next franchise quarterback. Yes, they drafted Davis Mills in the third round, but if Deshaun Watson is gone, anything is on the table in Houston to find the next long term option.

If you plan to rebuild, you may as well embrace the tank. The Texans are selling a mixed bag with all the veteran additions this offseason, but smart fans and bettors already know they won’t be in the mix, and the odds are a true reflection of it. If they surprise, it’s that they win 4-5 games this year, not make the postseason.

PREDICTION: NO (-1400)

Donnavan Smoot:

There isn’t much to add here. The Texans won’t be in the playoffs or in playoff contention any time soon. With all the uncertainty around Watson, combined with just the lack of talent on the roster, the Texans won’t sniff the postseason. 

This year, the Texans might actually be vilified for winning games because it will hurt their draft standings. They are in full rebuild/tank mode (depending on which viewpoint you see it from) and will be one of the worst teams in the league.

PREDICTION: NO (-1400)

Peter Dewey: 

If Watson was only able to win Houston four games last season while throwing for 4,823 yards, 33 scores and just seven picks, then there is no way Houston makes the playoffs in 2021 with Taylor or Mills at quarterback. 

The odds at WynnBET reflect that, and the lack of an infusion of any talent for Houston is going to make it even easier to take the Texans to miss the playoffs. Watson won’t be under center in 2021, and the team’s top wideout from last season, Will Fuller V, and defensive leader, J.J. Watt, are on different teams this season.

No chance.

PREDICTION: NO (-1400)

Iain MacMillan:

I can only write so much about how bad the Texans are going to be in 2021. It’s to the point where I legitimately feel bad for some of the players and coaching staff. Looking through their roster, I don’t know if I’ve ever felt this confident about a team being terrible ahead of an NFL season.

Their only hope of finding any success is for Deshaun Watson to somehow escape his current allegations, but even then he will have zero help on the offensive side of the football.

It’s a dark time to be a Houston Texans fan. There is less than a zero percent chance they will make the playoffs this season.

PREDICTION: NO (-1400)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Friday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Dallas Cowboys and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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