Houston vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 24 (Back the Bears As a Home Underdog)
The latest Big 12 rock fight goes down in Waco, Texas Saturday afternoon in a nationally-televised contest between two of the nation’s top teams. No. 2 Houston has won four straight since falling at Kansas to start the month. The Cougars have a one-game lead for first place in the Big 12, but Baylor is within striking distance at a two-game deficit.
No. 11 Baylor had a two-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday after a 78-71 road loss to No. 25 BYU. The Bears have lost just one time at home this season in a three-overtime thriller to TCU on Jan. 27. Should you back Baylor in its first game of the season as a home underdog?
Here’s the betting preview for Saturday’s showdown with a best bet.
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Houston vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total
Houston vs. Baylor Betting Trends
- Houston is 12-12-2 ATS this season
- Baylor is 15-8-2 ATS this season
- Houston is 12-12-2 ATS as a favorite this season
- Baylor is 3-3 ATS as an underdog this season
- The OVER is 11-15 in Houston games this season
- The OVER is 13-12 in Baylor games this season
Houston vs. Baylor How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, Feb. 24
- Game time: 12 p.m. EST
- Venue: Foster Pavilion
- How to watch (TV): CBS
- Houston record: 23-3 (10-3 Big 12)
- Baylor record: 19-7 (8-5 Big 12)
Houston vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch
Houston
Jamal Shead: While Houston’s defense grabs all the attention (and rightfully so), the Cougars have had three different 20-point scorers over the last three games and it was Shead’s turn in Monday’s big win over No. 6 Iowa State. The fourth-year Houston guard is averaging a career-high 13.3 points per game this season and is third in the Big 12 in assists (5.8).
Baylor
Rayj Dennis: The fifth-year senior guard and Toledo transfer is not the same scorer he was in the MAC (19.5 points per game last season with the Rockets), but is the key facilitator on the Baylor offense. Dennis leads the Big 12 in assists (6.6) and is still scoring 13.1 points per night.
Houston vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
By now, it’s no secret that Kelvin Sampson’s team is led by the nation’s top defense. Houston is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and carries top-5 metrics in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, block percentage, steal percentage, and defending shots from 2-point range.
Does Baylor have the offense to match up with the Cougars’ physicality? The short answer - yes. Baylor is the No. 4 team in KenPom in offensive efficiency and is the No. 3 three-point shooting team in the nation while ranking ninth in the effective field goal percentage.
On the other side of the ball, Houston might be the No. 16 offense in efficiency, but the Cougars are No. 234 in effective field goal percentage. Baylor struggles to defend shots from inside the arc (No. 231), but that’s not a strong point for a Houston offense that is No. 264 in 2-point shooting and can’t connect at the free-throw line (No. 310).
Foster Pavilion will be electric Saturday afternoon and Baylor has the underdog factor on its side. Houston might be elite at suffocating opposing offenses, but it’s not as great on the road. The Cougars have allowed 69.6 points per game over its last five away games and have lost three times on the road this season. Houston is just 1-6 ATS as an away favorite this season and Baylor has been great at home (8-4-1 ATS). Take the Bears.
Pick: Baylor +3
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.