Houston vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Odds (A Defensive Struggle will yield Little Points)

Feb 2, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Kyler Edwards (11) takes a shot.
Feb 2, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Kyler Edwards (11) takes a shot. / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
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No. 6 Houston will go on the road to Cincinnati, and will look to continue its 11-game winning streak against a Cincinnati team that has won five of their last six home games. Houston is a tough matchup for any team, but can Cincinnati give them a challenge?

Let’s start with the odds via WynnBET.

Houston vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Houston -6.5 (-110)
  • Cincinnati +6.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Houston -270
  • Cincinnati +220

Total:

  • 132.0 (Over -110 | Under -110)

Houston vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

Houston is a very solid team that can hurt you in a number of ways, especially defensively. Their defense ranks second in the country in points allowed, giving up only 56.5 points per game. They lock down opponents and make life difficult for opposing shooters. They rank third in opponents effective field goal percentage at 42.3%, eighth in opponent three point percentage at 28.2%, and first in opponent field goals made per game at only 19.0.

Kinda hard to score points when you’re only making 19 buckets per game as a team.

Their offense is no slouch either. Houston averages 76.8 points per game (37th) and pulls in 39.9 rebounds per game (15th). 

So basically, we get it — Houston is good. The question is whether or not Cincinnati can keep up, and the short answer to that is “not on offense.”

Cincinnati ranks 263rd in effective field goal percentage, 149th in points scored at 70.8, and they’re awful from the free throw line. However, like Houston, they can play amazing defense. No team is better than Cincinnati at opponent effective field goal percentage, holding the other team to only 41.7%. Like Houston, they can clamp down on opposing teams and limit scoring. This game might be closer than it would seem on the surface, but the best way to approach this game is to bet the under. This is a battle of defensive juggernauts. 

Pick: Under 132.0 (-110)

You can find all of Jon Helmkamp’s picks here.