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Houston vs. Illinois Prediction and Odds for Second Round of NCAA Tournament (Back Illini to Hang in and Cover)

By Ben Heisler

Illinois' Kofi Cockburn vs. Houston's Josh Carlton inside will make for a dynamic interior matchup in the NCAA Tournament's second round.
Illinois' Kofi Cockburn vs. Houston's Josh Carlton inside will make for a dynamic interior matchup in the NCAA Tournament's second round. / Rey Del Rio/GettyImages
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The No. 4-seeded Illinois Fighting Illini didn't hold a lead on No. 12-seeded Chattanooga until the last 30 seconds of the game, but that's all they needed to survive and advance.

The challenge will be far more difficult on Sunday in the opening NCAA men's tournament matchup of the day when they take on the 5-seeded Houston Cougars. Houston won their opening matchup Sunday with an 82-68 victory over UAB.

Both squads spent the year amongst the top-ranked in college basketball, but who moves on from the Round of 32?

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Houston vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Houston -4.5 (-110)
  • Illinois +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Houston -200
  • Illinois +165

Total:

  • 133.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Houston vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

There is a sense of "prisoner of the moment" mentality right now when evaluating both of these two teams, and I think that sets up an opportunity for value for Illinois.

Have the Illini played their best basketball of late? No, but they haven't been as awful as how they're being described. The loss to Indiana in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament was surprising, but not shocking. Same thing with the one-point win vs. the Mocs, who hit a buzzer beater from nearly half court to win the Southern Conference Tournament.

These two teams are very similar to each other. While Houston offers slight advantages in both KenPom adjusted offense and defensive rating, Illinois went through a gauntlet of a conference schedule and is also a superior free throw shooting team, something that could be a major issue for the Cougars if the game remains close. Houston ranks in the bottom 30 in college basketball; shooting from the charity stripe at 66.6%.

Illinois still had a bad taste in their mouth from last year, losing as a 1-seed to Loyola Chicago in this very round last year. I expect them to come out with much more intensity and look to return to the Sweet 16 after failing to do so a season ago.

LEAN: Illinois +4.5 (-110)

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