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Houston vs. UCF Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, March 6 (Target Total)

By Reed Wallach

Feb 27, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) shoots the ball during the
Feb 27, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard Jamal Shead (1) shoots the ball during the / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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Houston is off a thrilling win at Oklahoma, and now stay on the road to face a stout defense in UCF.

The Cougars remain firmly set as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and will look to continue to figure out its rotations for the postseason against an elite Knights defense that has been a tough out at home.

While Houston is expected to win, is there betting value on the total? Here is how we are betting Wednesday's Big 12 matchup:

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Houston vs. UCF Odds, Spread and Total

UCF vs. Houston Betting Trends

  • Houston is 3-6-1 agianst the spread (ATS) over the last 10 games
  • Houston is 3-8-1 ATS on the road this season
  • UCF is 11-8 ATS at home this season
  • UCF is 8-5 ATS as an underdog this season

Houston vs. UCF How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, March 6th
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Addition Financial Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
  • Houston Record: 26-3
  • UCF Record: 15-13

Houston vs. UCF Key Players to Watch

Houston

Jamal Shead: Shead added to his legend with a game winner on Saturday at Oklahoma. The team's leading scorer, Sehad will look to handle an elite UCF defense that loves to put pressure on the ball and play a brand of basketball that is similar to Houston's. Will familiarity stand out and guide Shead to another stellar performance?

UCF

Darius Johnson: The Knights guard is the most consistent threat in the team's limited offense, scoring in double figures in nine straight Big 12 games. Further, he has been a fantastic defender, leading the conferene in steal percentage. Johnson will take on the Shead assignment in hopes of the Knights scoring a massive upset.

Houston vs. UCF Prediction and Pick

The first meeting between Houston and UCF, two of the 10 best defenses in the country, was predictably a rock fight. The game closed with a total of 128 points and the game didn't sniff that total, 57-42 final in favor of the Cougars.

I will take a similar path in this one as the total has actually been adjusted up ahead of this game at UCF.

Houston's defense is still the best in the country but it's taken a step back ever so slightly as the diminishing returns of a long season is starting to seep into its numbers. With that being said, this game is still going to be a defensive struggle.

Houston's defense should dominate a UCF offense that can't shoot from the perimeter and can't operate in the halfcourt. The Knights are 292nd in effective field goal percentage and turns it over at the 254th highest rate. In the first meeting, UCF shot 15% from the field. Sure, I'm sure they'll shoot better, but not by much against this Houston defense.

Meanwhile, the UCF defense does an excellent job of pressuing the ball, but follows it up with stout defensive rebounding, which can offset one of Houston's biggest strengths, its ability to get second chances.

Fouls will play a role in this low total, but these teams are both below the conference average in Big 12 free throw percnetage, so I'll look past it and stay foucsed on the form of each defense.

I have to grab the under in this rematch.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!

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