Houston vs. UTSA Prediction: Holgersen and Houston Take Another Step Forward in 2022

Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune (3)
Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune (3) / Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Houston and UTSA both had incredible 2021 seasons and look to keep the momentum going in 2022.

Houston comes in ranked No. 24 in the country after going 12-2 a year ago. They lost the American Conference Championship to Cincinnati, the best group of five team we’ve seen in a very long time, but this year Houston could be the cream of the G5 crop.  Dana Holgorsen looks to build on that season before they head to a new-look Big 12.

The Roadrunners of UTSA also went 12-2 and won their conference championship, but suffer some losses on the offensive side and staring turnover regression right in the face. This is certainly a measuring stick game for both sides to see how they have progressed into 2022. 

Houston vs. UTSA Odds, Spread and Total

Houston vs. UTSA Odds, Spread and Total Movement in CFB Week 1

The spread opened at Houston -4 and has gotten a half point bigger throughout the week, but since it was already above the field goal and hasn’t moved through any crucial numbers this shouldn’t scare you off of Houston if you liked them at -4. 

Houston vs. UTSA Best Bets and Prediction 

The Houston passing game is returning its most important parts. Clayton Tune is back under center after throwing 30 touchdowns to 10 picks a year ago and over 3,500 yards. His top receiver Nathaniel Dell is also back after a 1,329 yard and 12 touchdown season. Those two will be even better this season and the continuity is a huge reason to love the Cougars this year. 

It will be more of a running back by committee situation, but that is fine for Holgorsen’s offense. The Cougars should move the ball and have not suffered any losses close to as bad as UTSA. The Roadrunners are without their 2021 leading rusher Sincere McCormick, who is off to the NFL. 

Their entire offense was predicated around running it with McCormick and winning the turnover battle. They had the number one turnover margin in their conference and that was a big reason for the defense's success. It was not a very talented unit and turnover regression is bound to come. I would be fading the Roadrunners in this one and I see them taking a step back in 2022.

Reed Wallach was all over this at the beginning of the week on The Early Reed, so I’m backing my guy. 

PICK: Houston -4.5 (-105)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE