How Buffalo Weather Forecast Impacts Betting on Bills vs Browns

Dec 10, 2017; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs past
Dec 10, 2017; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs past / Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Unless you've been living under a six-foot pile of snow, odds are you've heard it's going to snow in Buffalo this weekend. A lot. Like 3-to-6 feet worth. Enough that the NFL is considering what to do about the Browns game against the Bills, scheduled to kick off in Orchard Park, NY this Sunday at 1 pm.

While the NFL considers its move, now's the time for bettor's to consider theirs too.

The popular play is betting the UNDER. The OVER/UNDER for Browns-Bills opened at 47 to start the week but has now moved all the way down to 41.5. According to BetMGM's John Ewing, 92% of the bets are on the UNDER.

That doesn't mean you should follow the crowd.

First of all, this game could be moved to another location. If that happens, the total will move up. How far we don't know, but I've seen at least one long-time bettor say he took the OVER on 41.5 as a speculative play in case the location is changed.

Personally I don't see the location being changed. It's a logistical nightmare for everyone and it penalizes the Bills for someone they can't control. The NFL will want to avoid that at all costs. Plus, the snow is expected to be heaviest Friday-Saturday, giving officals time to clear the roads and the stadium to make it safe for everyone to attend and play the game.

So let's say we take away the snow and just focus on the fact that the temperature is supposed to be 27 degrees with 20 MPH winds. Another bad sign right? Not so.

In the five coldest games played in Buffalo in Bills history, the average scoring total was 44.2 points per game. In those games, OVER 41.5 would have a 3-2 record. Now, those are historic games, but facts are facts.

End of the day, betting on the OVER/UNDER feels like a highly-speculative play to me. Instead, I'll wait to see where the game will be played and what the conditions are like on Sunday morning before throwing my cash in the ring.

Speculative betting rarely works out and, like the weather forecast for Buffalo, where some are saying there could be 2 feet and others are saying it could be 6, betting right now is like flipping a coin.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.