How Carson Wentz's Injury Changes AFC Wild Card Race

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2), against Arizona, Saturday, Dec. 25, 2021, at State
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz (2), against Arizona, Saturday, Dec. 25, 2021, at State / Jenna Watson/IndyStar / USA TODAY
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Indianapolis Colts quarterback Carson Wentz was ruled out of the team's Week 17 home game against the Las Vegas Raiders due to a positive COVID-19 case.

As ESPN's Adam Schefter notes, the team will likely turn to rookie quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has zero regular season snaps.

The Colts, who opened as 9-point favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook against the Raiders are now compromised at the most important position in the sport. This has massive ramifications on the AFC Wild Card race heading into the final two weeks. Let's break down all the scenarios for the contending teams, starting with the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are still in good shape even with a loss to the Raiders. If the team beats the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18 and the Baltimore Ravens lose one of their final two games, they will clinch a postseason berth.

Indy is still alive for the AFC South, but that path got much more difficult now that they are starting a backup quarterback. The Colts will need to win out and have the Tennessee Titans lose out to the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans to win the division.

Las Vegas Raiders

It's very simple for the Raiders: win and in.

If Las Vegas goes to Indianapolis and beats a depleted Colts roster and beats the Los Angeles Chargers at home, it will clinch a postseason berth at 10-7.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins, winners of seven straight, are currently in the final wild card spot, so they too are in good shape to make the postseason.

If Miami wins out, it too will be in, but a 1-1 record makes it much more murky. Here is the path to Miami making the postseason if it splits the final two games.

*Deep breath*

  • Cleveland loses out
  • Broncos beat Chargers in Week 17
  • Steelers beat Ravens in Week 18
  • Chargers beat Raiders in Week 18

Possible, but a wild scenario nonetheless.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers need some help, but it starts with winning out against the Denver Broncos and Raiders in the final two weeks, as Ben Baldwin notes.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens need some help to get into the postseason, but it starts with winning out against the Los Angeles Rams and Steelers at home in the next two weeks.

After that, Baltimore needs the Dolphins or the Raiders to lose one of their last two in order to get back into the race.

At this point, it's a far cry to count on the Ravens to win the AFC North, so there most likely path is above.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers, who can get to nine wins and have a tie in hand from earlier in the season, could get the leg up on other teams that finish with the same wins due to win percentage.

Of course, it starts with the Steelers beating the Browns and Ravens in Week 17 and 18.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have very little chance of earning a wild card berth, but still can win the division by winning out and the Bengals losing in Week 17 to the Chiefs.

If Cleveland wins in Week 17 and Cincinnati loses to Kansas City, Week 18 will be a winner takes the division game between the two.