How Do Big Favorites Perform in Final Four? History Says Not Great

UConn has been destroying the field in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, looking eerily similar to the 2023 version. 

The Huskies have covered in every game dating back to the beginning of last year’s NCAA Tournament title, now 10 games in a row, and oddsmakers can’t catch up to the dominance this team is showcasing on the floor.

However, as the team enters Saturday’s Final Four matchup against Alabama, the team will have to overcome some history, being a double digit favorite and covering. 

According to Action Network, no double digit favorite in the NCAA Tournament Final Four has covered a point spread north of double digits, only one pushed the closing number. The most recent case, Gonzaga facing off against UCLA, had the game go into overtime.

The Huskies have won every game in this NCAA Tournament by 15 points or more and will face an Alabama team that struggles on the defensive side of the ball, which can maybe get the Huskies perimeter offense on track.

Despite winning with ease in all four games, the Huskies are shooting below 30% from beyond the arc. Can Alabama’s leaky defense open up the floodgates from distance? 

Well, history may have something to say about this as it would say you are paying a premium to back the favorite, but the Huskies appear to be smashing expectations at every turn. Will Saturday be any different? 

Here’s the odds for the national semifinals from Glendale, Arizona. 

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Alabama vs. UConn Odds, Spread and Total

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.