All four NBA second round series' head back to the higher seeded team for a pivotal Game 5.
Three of the remaining four series left in the 2022 NBA Playoffs are tied at two games a piece with massive implications on the line in Game 5. Dating back to 2010, home teams in Game 5 have had resounding success leaving their floor with a victory, but what about against the spread? Is there an edge to betting home favorites in this situation? Here are the numbers:
These numbers do not include the 2020 NBA Playoffs, which were played in the bubble and had zero home court advantage.
Home Favorites Against the Spread in Game 5 Since 2010-2011
- Home Favorites: 57-51-2 ATS
- Home Favorites: -4 or Less: 8-8
- Home Favorites off of a Loss: 35-28-2
It appears that oddsmakers have factored in the tax of playing home teams in a typically pivotal Game 5, as bettors are just getting out ahead over a large sample size. Every situation is unique, but both teams that are playing on Tuesday night may fit the bill of a more profitable angle to play on the spread, both the Heat (-3 at WynnBET Sportsbook) and Suns (-6) are coming off of losses in Game 4.
There have only been five home underdogs since 2010 in Game 5, so there's not much to draw from that sample. The Grizzlies are currently 2.5 point underdogs at WynnBET on Wednesday for Game 5.
Home Favorite Straight Up Record in Game 5 since 2010-2011
- Home Favorites: 88-22
- Home Favorites -4 or Less: 11-5
- Home Favorites off a Loss: 51-14
Of course one would think that the home team is favored and they should win, but the results are staggering. As we get into the later part of the series, the home team has held serve 80% of the time.
That number actually takes a bit of a step down to 78% off a loss, but this is a notable trend. Teams such as the Suns and Heat that are "on the ropes" after dropping a pair of road games, are actually taking care of business on their home court at an sky high rate. This may buck the narrative that the series has actually swung. It may just be home court playing a role in each postseason series.
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