How Long Should Bettors Keep Fading the Yankees?
The New York Yankees are in a free fall.
They've lost 11 of their last 13 games, and their fans have had enough.
But, how should we handle this losing slump as bettors? They've built up a large enough cushion in the AL East that they shouldn't worry about losing the division (yet), and they're still amongst the favorites to win the World Series.
Let's take a look at where they stand in the betting market.
Yankees Betting Odds as of August 17
- To Win AL East -3500
- To Win ALCS +185
- To Win World Series +450
So, there's certainly no value on betting them to win it all this year. But what about game by game?
Tonight, they face the Tampa Bay Rays for the third game of a three-game series. They dropped the first two contests, and will look for Domingo German to out-duel Corey Kluber.
Sportsbooks have the Yankees set as -135 favorites, and I'll keep fading them. Especially once you consider Kluber's numbers against them throughout his career.
How to Bet on the Yankees Moving Forward
With all of that being said, slumps don't last forever.
Even if you include their recent results, the Yankees still rank third in the Majors in OPS at .761, and they're second amongst all teams in run differential at +195. Their run differential is 57 runs better than the Houston Astros, who are their main competition in the American League.
There's no doubt that their bullpen is going to be a weakness for them down the stretch, but an average bullpen doesn't make a team go from a World Series contender to a dumpster fire.
As much as I personally wish recent weeks were signs of a permanent implosion, I think Yankees fans and bettors should step back and take a breath. There's still plenty of time to get back on track before the postseason.
Fade away while they're on a cold streak, but don't expect to keep cashing on their opponents for the rest of the season.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.