How to Bet 49ers vs. Rams Based on Divisional Rematch History
By Reed Wallach
The San Francisco 49ers travel to SoFi Stadium to face the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship. This is a familiar location for the 49ers, who won in this very stadium to punch their ticket to the postseason in Week 18, erasing a double digit deficit to win in overtime.
Now, these two NFC West rivals will meet in an elimination game for both sides, not just San Francisco. How have divisional foes fared against one another in the postseason? We have the answers below.
First, let's take a look at the odds to set the stage for this setting. The Rams sit as 3.5-point home favorites at WynnBET Sportsbook with a total of 46.5. The Niners won the Week 18 meeting in thrilling fashion, but also disposed of Sean McVay's team, 31-10 in Week 10.
Divisional Underdogs Thrive in Postseason, but What About Championship Weekend?
These settings happen over the course of the postseason, including this year when the Rams covered as favorites against the Cardinals. However, history favors the underdog, as they have covered in 18 of 30 divisional rematches in the postseason dating back to 2000.
While this trend is by no means no predictive, it is interesting that familiarity between the two teams have been more impactful for the underdog. With that being said, favorites on Championship Weekend are 3-0 ATS against a divisional opponent, most recently when the Seattle Seahawks beat the San Francisco 49ers in 2013.
Can You Beat a Team 3 Times?
So there's a common narrative out there that you can't beat a team three times. While it sounds daunting, it's actually not true. The team that won the prior two matchups typically win the third in the postseason. Shoutout to @ClevTA for this nugget.
When national media members try to tell u its hard to beat a tm 3 times in a season they are making things up. Since 02 there have been 8 3rd gm rematches in the playoffs where one tm went 2-0 in reg season. In the playoffs those tms have gone 5-3 straight up
— TA (@ClevTA) January 25, 2022
He later notes that only once was a team an underdog in this situation, ironically the 2005 Rams, who beat the Seahawks.
There are further trends to support the 49ers as dogs on Sunday, including the fact that San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 against the spread and straight up when facing McVay over their last 10 games, including six straight victories. In 8 of those 10 instances, Shanahan has been an underdog.
Maybe San Francisco just has Los Angeles number.