How to Bet Baker Mayfield's Passing Yards Prop After Odell Beckham Jr. Release

On Friday, the Cleveland Browns announced that they would release wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., voiding the last two seasons of his contract, making the receiver a free agent in 2022. Beckham can be claimed on waivers by other clubs on Tuesday.

How much will this impact Baker Mayfield? Not too much, probably. 

In 2019, Mayfield threw 21 interceptions, nine of them coming on passes targeted for Beckham. In 2020, Mayfield threw only eight interceptions and three of those eight interceptions were targeted for Beckham; it becomes more interesting considering that Beckham only played seven games in 2020 because of an ACL tear. 

WynnBET Sportsbook has Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop set at 235.5 yards (Over: -125/Under: -115). 

Head Coach Kevin Stefanski has a run-heavy offense in Cleveland. The Browns average 31.2 rushing attempts per game, which is third in the NFL, running the football on 48.7 percent of all offensive plays called. 

At the time of his release, Beckham was leading Cleveland with 34 targets in the passing game. Beckham’s higher share of targets may be a reflection of Jarvis Landry sitting out for a few weeks, but the opportunities from Mayfield were coming his way, he just did nothing with them. 

Beckham’s snap count is also interesting when compared to lesser known receivers like Donavan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins.

All three secondary receivers behind Landry appeared in Weeks 3 through 6 together.

Odell Beckham Jr., Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Rashard Higgins Snap Percentage: Week 3 Through Week 6

• Week 3: Beckham 64% | Peoples-Jones 65% | Higgins 49%
• Week 4: Beckham 79% | Peoples-Jones 59% | Higgins 53%
• Week 5: Beckham 81% | Peoples-Jones 68% | Higgins 47%
• Week 6: Beckham 54% | Peoples-Jones 78% | Higgins 63%

With Landry out, Beckham was still being used in a similar capacity to lesser known receivers. That may have hurt his value a little, but his targets were much higher. 

Odell Beckham Jr., Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins Targets: Week 3 Through Week 6

• Beckham: 27 Targets
• Peoples-Jones: 11 Targets
• Higgins: 17 Targets

The Browns also have three decent tight ends in Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant that will eat up some of the targets and find themselves on the field frequently to block for the running game. 

Mayfield plays in a run-first offense and no longer has to force the ball into Beckham’s hands. It shouldn’t hurt Mayfield in any way. If anything, it may be an addition by subtraction for the Cleveland Browns.

For this week, the Browns will face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that allowed Mike White of the New York Jets to throw for over 400 yards in his first NFL start. Don’t be afraid to back Mayfield  to get over the 235.5 yards prop.