How to Bet the Kentucky Derby (Fading the Favorite a Tried and True Strategy)
By Matt De Saro
The 148th Kentucky Derby is this Saturday at Churchill Downs. The equine racing world has been abuzz with predictions in recent days, so I wanted to look at this event from a different angle. A historical angle in fact. With that in mind, let's take a look at how to bet on the Run for the Roses using historical trends.
Fade the Favorite
This is a decent strategy for sports betting in general if done properly. But the trends are strong to suggest the favorites are not great bets in the Kentucky Derby. Over the last 13 years, favorites are 6-7 when it comes to first-place finishes.
The last favorite to win was Justify back in 2018 at 3-1 odds. But in 2019, Country House won as a staggering 65-1 underdog. And that is why we fade the favorites. Because when they win, they tend to win big. And while Country House’s win isn’t something that happens too often, it can be a life-changing wager.
To add some math to this, consider that the average odds for an underdog win in the last 13 years is more than 30-1. Compare that to the average odds for the last six favorites to win of around 7/2 and remember that underdogs won 54% of the last 13 Derbys. Nuff said.
The Inside Post in Not an Advantage
This one has me scratching my head a bit, as one would expect having less track to cover would help. But statistics don’t lie, especially stats that show a strong trend dating back decades. Since 1986, there have been just two horses won from the first Post. Ferdinand managed the feat in 1986, while Real Quiet followed up with a post-one win in 1998.
While post one gets a lot of attention for technically having a shorter track, post two actually has the longest losing streak of the inside draws. No horse has won the Derby from this spot since Affirmed won the Triple Crown in 1978.
Mo Donegal drew the inside track this year and is considered a strong contender to win. The colt even made my shortlist of dark horse candidates for this year’s Derby.
Post Five is the Ideal Draw
Based on straight wins and losses, post five is the best position in the draw. Post five has produced the most overall winners (10), second-place finishes (8), and winning percentage (10.9%). A post-five horse has also finished in the top five seven times in the last ten years.
Worth noting that post five hasn't had a win since 2017. Since then, seven of the last 11 winners of the Derby broke from outside posts of 13 or wider. These posts avoid the traffic that slows down the inside posts early in the race.