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Idaho State vs. Montana Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Big Sky Championship Semifinal (Back the Grizzlies)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Idaho State-Montana. 

By Shelby Dermer

Dec 20, 2022; Spokane, Washington, USA; Montana Grizzlies guard Aanen Moody (11) against Gonzaga.
Dec 20, 2022; Spokane, Washington, USA; Montana Grizzlies guard Aanen Moody (11) against Gonzaga. / James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
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No. 6 Idaho State is trying to keep alive its impressive run in the Big Sky Tournament through two rounds. The Bengals got past Northern Arizona (68-60) and Northern Colorado (83-76) and are two wins away from their first conference tournament title and NCAA Tournament appearance since 1987. 

Standing in Idaho State’s way is No. 3 Montana, which beat the Bengals twice during the regular season Montana, 87-81 winners over Portland State in its tournament opener Monday, hasn’t been to March Madness since 2019. Here’s the betting preview for the matchup with a best bet. 

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Idaho State vs. Montana Odds, Spread and Total

Idaho State vs. Montana Betting Trends

  • Idaho State is 14-17 ATS this season
  • Montana is 12-11 ATS this season
  • Idaho State is 11-10 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Montana is 13-7 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 20-10-1 in Idaho State games this season
  • The OVER is 15-13 in Montana games this season

Idaho State vs. Montana How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, March 12
  • Game time: 11 p.m. EST
  • Venue: CenturyLink Arena
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN2/ESPN+
  • Idaho State record: 14-19
  • Montana record: 22-10

Idaho State vs. Montana Key Players to Watch

Idaho State

Miguel Tomley: Underdog stories need unlikely heroes and Tomley has played that role over the first two games. The junior guard averages 13.8 points per game but has poured in 45 points in the first two rounds of the Big Sky Championship, including Sunday’s season-high 28 on 9-of-18 shooting with a trio of 3-pointers. 

Montana 

Aanen Moody: The 6-foot-3 senior guard has combined for 106 points over the last four games. He opened the conference tournament with a 27-point performance in Monday’s win over Portland State, going 9-of-13 from the field with 4 assists and 3 rebounds. 

Idaho State vs. Montana Prediction and Pick 

Overs in Idaho State games have hit a high rate (20-10-1) and it’s not because of an electrifying offense. The high point totals are a result of a high-risk, high-reward Idaho State defense. The Bengals are one of the worst shooting defenses in the nation, ranking No. 339 in effective field goal percentage, according to KenPom, and 300 or lower in both 3-point and 2-point field goals.

However, Idaho State lives off takeaways. The Bengals are top-100 in both turnover percentage and steal percentage. The bad news? Montana is extremely careful with the ball (No. 24 in turnover percentage) and can flat-out knock down open shots, which they should get plenty of on Tuesday night. Montana is No. 34 in effective field goal percentage and No. 28 in the nation in shooting from inside the arc. 

On the other side of the ball, Idaho State is middle of the road in most metrics and above-average near the rim. Idaho State struggles to connect from downtown, which is one area where they could take advantage of given Montana’s No. 287 in 3-point defense. Montana has been great at getting margin, going 13-7 ATS as a favorite. Lay it with the Grizzlies. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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