Idaho vs. Sacramento State Prediction and Odds for Big Sky Tournament First Round (Back Vandals to Advance)

The Idaho Vandals and the Sacramento State Hornets are set to face off in the opening round action of the Big Sky tournament on Wednesday morning. This being the first game of the first round we’re getting the bottom of the barrel in the Big Sky. The pair are tied for eighth place in the conference with identical 6-14 records in Big Sky play.

Despite the equal records, I would argue that the Hornets are in a much better state right now. Sacramento has won four of its last five games while Idaho lost three of its last five. Both teams did manage to win their season finales but I still believe that these teams are not as similar as they may appear.

Here are the odds for this Big Sky showdown, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Idaho vs. Sacramento Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread:

• Idaho +1.5 (-110)
• Sacramento -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Idaho N/A
• Sacramento N/A

Total: 140 (Over -110/Under -110)

Idaho vs. Sacramento Prediction and Pick

As I stated above, I think the Hornets are in a much better way right now than the Vandals heading into this win-or-go-home matchup. Well, Sacramento has not only been doing well outright recently, but they are on an ATS tear as well. The Hornets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games to end the season which is a big deal I think. It shows that despite a losing record and no chance to win the tournament, they were still fighting. Even in games, they were losing. The same cannot be said for Idaho went 2-2 ATS in their last four with three outright losses. 

Looking over the stats throws a bit of a wrench into my plans to ride Sacramento tonight. Both teams are bad but at least Idaho has shown the ability to score. In fact, they nearly have a top 100 scoring offense. Sacramento, meanwhile, sits in 300th in the same category and averages just 65 points per game. But, then I have to consider that only five teams in the nation have a worse defense than Idaho. They allow an insane 81.1 points per game and have to be setting some kind of record in the Big Sky. 

I think this game comes down to the little things and, as much as I hate to say it, I think Idaho does those things better. This is particularly true in the free-throw shooting category. Sacramento ranks 285th at 68.4 percent and ranks 58th at 75.3 percent. That is a massive difference for such a short spread like this. The Hornets defense also commits a ton of fouls on defense, 15.9 to be exact, so the Vandals will be able to put their skills at the charity stripe to good use.

WynnBET doesn't yet have odds listed for the ML but that is what I would take. In the meantime, I’m going to grab the Vandals +1.5. 

Pick: Idaho +1.5 (-110) / Idaho ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE