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Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa Prediction and Odds (Value on the Under?)

By Reed Wallach

Northern Iowa guard Trae Berhow (11) celebrates a 3-pointer against the Drake during their game at
Northern Iowa guard Trae Berhow (11) celebrates a 3-pointer against the Drake during their game at / Meg McLaughlin/The Register / USA TODAY
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Northern Iowa, the No. 1 seed in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, gets set for a title run against No. 8 seed Illinois State on Friday afternoon.

Northern Iowa is paced by arguably the best scorer in the conference, A.J. Green, and swept the season series against Illinois State, but how will it fare on a neutral floor at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis?

Here are the odds for the first game of the quarterfinals from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Illinois State: +8 (-110)
  • Northern Iowa: -8 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Illinois State: +280
  • Northern Iowa: -360

Total: 149 (Over -110/Under -110)

Illinois State vs. Northern Iowa Prediction and Pick

These two played a tight one back on February 15th, a 72-70 Panthers road win, with the Redbirds closing as four point underdogs and a total of 143.5. Now, we are set on a neutral floor with a spread of UNI -8 and total of 149.

The spread shifting an extra point towards the Panthers makes some sense given the recent success of the team, winning nine of their last 10 games en route to the top seed, but the total feels a bit too high for me.

Illinois State does a fine job of defending 3-point shot (second in MVC play in 3-point defense) and UNI is heavily reliant on the three, posting the fourth highest 3-point rate in conference play.

On the other side, Northern Iowa looks to generate turnovers against a sloppy Illinois State defense that turns it over on nearly 20% of its possessions. Northern Iowa's defense is weak around the rim (bottom 30 in the country in field goal percentage at the rim) but Illinois State typically settles for outside shots as it lacks dynamic playmakers.

I believe this total has drifted too far in one direction and lean towards the under in the early game of the MVC quarters.

LEAN: Under 149

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 82-78-3 for -0.55 units.

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