Illinois vs. Iowa State Final Score Prediction for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The Sweet 16 will feature a showdown between two conference tournament champions when the Big Ten tournament champs, Illinois, takes on the Big 12 tournament champs, Iowa State in a No. 3 vs. No. 2 showdown.

Iowa State is one of the most intriguing teams in the country, having beat No. 1 Houston twice this season including in the conference tournament championship game.

The Cyclones force turnovers at a higher rate than any other major conference team and they waltz to two-straight victories so far in the NCAA Tournament, beating No. 15 South Dakota State, 82-65, and then followed it up with a 67-56 dismantling of Washington State.

Illinois is also playing some of its best basketball of the season. They ran the table in the Big Ten Conference Tournament and then won their first to games of the NCAA Tournament by a comfortable margin. The Fighting Illini took down No. 14 Morehead State, 85-69, in the Round of 64 and then blew past No. 11 Duquesne, beating them by a final score of 89-63.

Our college basketball expert, Reed Wallach, has already written his full betting preview for the game, which you can read here. In this article, we're going to take a look at which side Iowa State is backing and then I'm going to attempt to do the improbable and predict the exact final score of the game.

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Illinois vs. Iowa State odds, spread, and total

Illinois vs. Iowa State expert prediction

Reed Wallach broke down why he's taking Iowa State to win this game in what's shaping to be a near coin flip between two conference champions:

There’s a ton of clashing styles in this one.

Let’s start with when Iowa State has the ball. The team is a capable three-point shooting team but would prefer to get to the rim, outside the top 300 in three-point rate. Illinois does a great job of running teams off the perimeter, top 10 in opponent three-point rate, and using its length to contest mid-range jumpers.

However, the Fighting Illini defense has proven to be incredibly unreliable despite plenty of length and sound rebounding. The team is a poor transition defense, grading out “below average” in the open court, per Synergy Sports, allowing more than one point per possession. If Iowa State can run off misses, this can be where it thrives in this matchup, grading out as one of the best offenses in transition all season, 91st percentile while shooting over 59% in these situations.

Further, Illinois is bottom three in the country in turnover percentage, its inability to force turnovers has led to plenty of high-scoring affairs.

But, this is the best offense in the country. Illinois has plenty of positional size with Hawkins operating as a point center of sorts and Terrance Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask providing plenty of relief as downhill threats that get to the basket and go to the free-throw line at a high clip.

The Fighting Illini are 31st in effective field goal percentage and are elite at grabbing their misses, 16th in offensive rebounding rate. The unit is potent but also hasn’t seen a ball-pressure defense like Iowa State’s before.

The Cyclones are second in the country in turnover percentage, forcing TOs on more than a quarter of its defensive possessions. It’s worth noting that the elite turnover-minded defenses have thrived against Illinois in terms of forcing turnovers.

In five games against teams inside the top 40 nationally in turnover rate, Illinois went over its season-long average in all of them, and over 20% in four of them, going just 3-2.

I trust Iowa State’s defense to slow down Illinois while finding enough answers to pull out a win, especially given the unique nature of its defense.

Illinois vs. Iowa State Final Score Prediction

I agree with Reed on his Iowa State pick. I think few teams are going to be prepared to take on the smothering defense of the Cyclones and Illinois is no different.

So, that begs the question, what about the total? The total for the game is set at 145.5 and just like I'm backing Iowa State for its defense, I'm taking the UNDER due to the Cyclones' defense as well.

Iowa State leads the country in a metric that's called "opponent Floor%", which measures the percentage of a team's possessions that result in at least one point being scored. The Cyclones allow at least one point on just 41.1% of their opponent's possessions. They also allow the fourth fewest points per game at 61.3.

Finally, Iowa State plays at a relatively slow pace as well, averaging only 69.0 possessions per game which ranks 260th in the country.

In my opinion, the pace in this game is going to be determined by Iowa State and their ability to force turnovers and slow the game down is going to cause the total to go UNDER. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams struggle with their shooting early in the game.

Prediction: Illinois 67, Iowa State 75

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.