Illinois vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds (Illini Pose Great Underdog Bet)

Tuesday's game between Purdue and Illinois will be a rematch from the Martin Luther King Day thriller that went to double overtime, eventually won by Purdue. However, the Illini are finally healthy and playing their best ball of the season, can they win on the road in the always difficult Mackey Arena?

This game will have a massive say in who will win the Big Ten regular season title, so let's break down the numbers and find the betting value.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Illinois vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Illinois: +6 (-110)
• Purdue: -6 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Illinois: +210
• Purdue: -260

Total: 146 (Over -110/Under -110)

Illinois vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

The Boilermakers have the best offense in the country, according to KenPom, but it's their defense that is holding them back, which is ranked 107th. The team profiles as a team that can be bounced early come NCAA Tournament time with their inability to get stops, but how will they hold up against the Illini?

Both teams had a tone of success in the first matchup, a 96-88 victory Matt Painter's club, and I expect we see a ton of shot making once again. The crux to this handicap will be if Kofi Cockburn can slow down Zach Eddey inside. Eddey was a menace in the first meeting, arguably his best game of the season, scoring 22 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Cockburn battled foul trouble and an inefficient day around the rim en route to the loss.

I'm bullish the Illini can cover and be live for a win given their ability to limit Purdue's perimeter attack. The hosts are the No. 3 team in the country from three, but Illinois allow the fourth lowest rate of three pointers in the country. The team funnels opponents inside to the length of Cockburn. If the National Player of the Year candidate can stick with Eddey, the Purdue offense may have to work a bit more than usual to find good looks. For what it's worth, Purdue took 15 less three's than Illinois in the first meeting.

Meanwhile, the home team's leaky perimeter defense has been a problem. The Boilermakers are bottom 20 in turnover rate and allow teams to jack up three's at a top 50 clip. The likes of microwave scorer Trent Frazier and marksman Alfonso Plummer (40% from three-point land) can put points on the board in this matchup.

I'm bullish on Illinois, who is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog can hang in this matchup with improved play from Cockburn and the team fully healthy. The team has won four straight and is playing their best ball of the season. I was able to bet +7, but like this down to +5 and will be sprinkling on the moneyline as well.

PICK: Illinois +7, ML +210 (.5u)

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 52-43-3 for +7.3 units.