Implied Probability to Win NFL MVP for Top 10 Candidates

We are in the dog days of the NFL offseason as we count down the days until training camp, but that's not stopping us from preparing for the upcoming season.

The NFL futures market is open and taking bets, so let's set the table with how the MVP hierarchy is set heading into this season. Back-to-back Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win his third NFL MVP while he is trailed closely by Bills signal caller Josh Allen.

Below, you'll find the odds and implied probability for the top 10 in MVP odds for the 2024 season, which happen to be all quarterbacks.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

2024 NFL MVP Odds

1. Patrick Mahomes (+500)

Implied Probability: 16.67%

Mahomes is fresh off back-to-back Super Bowl seasons, but didn't contend for the MVP last season as the Chiefs offense was at its usual top level relative to recent years.

Kansas City is expected to be far better on offense this season with first-round pick wide receiver Xavier Worthy set to step in and help the best quarterback in the league put up the gaudy stats needed for him to win a third MVP.

2. Josh Allen (+800)

Implied Probability: 11.11%

Allen has been in the discussion for MVP for the past several years, but clouded by other quarterbacks that have inched ahead. However, his upside as a runner and passer make him worth these short of odds despite the team lacking proven pass catchers this season after trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans.

3. C.J. Stroud (+1000)

Implied Probability: 9.09%

Stroud dazzled as a rookie, and now is expected to contender for MVP honors around a Texans team that has quickly invested in him, trading for Diggs from the Bills and signing Joe Mixon at running back.

4. Joe Burrow (+1000)

Implied Probability: 9.09%

Burrow's season was cut short after an elbow injury, but the Bengals quarterback has proven he can play at an elite level after injury. While the team doesn't have Tyler Boyd, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are as good of a top wide receiver combination in the NFL, giving Burrow an MVP-level ceiling.

5. Lamar Jackson (+1400)

Implied Probability: 6.67%

Last year's MVP, Jackson is viewed as a contender for the award, but will be hard pressed to go back-to-back, something that has only happened twice since 2000 (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers).

6. Jordan Love (+1400)

Implied Probability: 6.67%

Jordan Love's first season as the starting quarterback for the Packers was an immense success, taking Green Bay to the postseason around an emerging group of pass catchers and upsetting the Dallas Cowboys.

More of a household name, the Packers signal caller is getting some MVP love in the offseason market.

7. Jalen Hurts (+1400)

Implied Probability: 6.67%

Viewed as the front runner late in the 2022 season, Hurts hasn't been able to capture an MVP as the Eagles crashed to close the season. With better health and a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore, Hurts is viewed as a threat to get back into the mix for MVP.

8. Dak Prescott (+1600)

Implied Probability: 5.88%

The Cowboys offense was elite last season, but Prescott couldn't capture the MVP. How will the Dallas signal caller follow up his play this season, the last of his contract?

9. Justin Herbert (+1600)

Implied Probability: +5.88%

Herbert has a tantalizing upside, but plenty of unknown as the Chargers are projected to miss the playoffs, a non-starter in MVP conversation. However, if Herbert turns the team around and gets the team back in the postseason, that can be the start of an MVP campaign.

10. Brock Purdy (+2000)

Implied Probability: 4.76%

Purdy was the favorite to win MVP late in the season, but failed to close the season out. This season, oddsmakers aren't sold on the 49ers quarterback to get much love in the MVP discussion.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.