In The BAG: How to Bet on the 2023 US Senior Open

After cashing a +1100 winning bet on last year's U.S. Senior Open (thank you Padraig Harrington!), In The BAG (penned by yours truly, Brian A. Giuffra) has returned for another winning shot! This year, I've enlisted the additional advice of golf betting expert Iain MacMillan, who's been running red hot in LPGA betting and steady on his PGA Tour/majors bets.

Last year, I had a chance to play Saucon Valley ahead of the U.S. Open, which I do feel helped me understand what it would take to win on the course, which led to my pick of Paddy. This year, no such luck as SentryWorld in Stevens Point, Wisconsin wasn't on my travel itinerary. However, I've researched the course extensively and believe I have a feel for what will be required to win.

Total driving, approach to the green and putting are the three key stats I'll be using to handicap this event coupled with recent performance and historical performance in the U.S. Open and U.S. Senior Open. I think a lower score will win this event (double-digit under par) so I'm also targeting players who can make birdies in bunches.

With that in mind, let's jump into our betting preview for the 2023 U.S. Senior Open.

2023 U.S. Senior Open Odds

The odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

2023 U.S. Senior Open Course

SentryWorld in Stevens Point will measure up to 7,218 yards and par is 71, with the ninth hole being converted from a Par-5 to a Par-4 for this tournament. There are two Par 3s measuring over 200 yards and a few longer Par-4s, but the Par-5s appear gettable for the longer hitters.

2023 U.S. Senior Open TV Schedule

• Thursday, Friday: 11 a.m.-2 p.m.; 5-7 p.m., Golf Channel
• Saturday: 11 a.m.-1 p.m., Peacock; 1-5 p.m., NBC
• Sunday — 11 a.m.-1 p.m., Peacock; 1-4 p.m., NBC

2023 U.S. Senior Open Long Shots

From In The BAG - Retief Goosen +5500

To me, a longshot is someone outside of the Top 10 in the odds. Therefore, the players mentioned in the odds section above are not eligible. Luckily, I have someone who fits that description and the criteria I mentioned above.

Retief Goosen is a name most golf fans are familiar with. The South African won the U.S. Open twice and was in contention in all four other majors throughout his career. As a senior tour player, he won The Players and finished T-2 at the 2021 U.S. Senior Open.

This year on the Champions Tour, he's 11th in driving distance and 50th in total driving. He's hitting over 70% of greens in regulation and is 26th in putting.

What I like about him most, however, is he's 14th in Par-3 scoring average and 16th in Par-5 scoring average. That, to me, is where this championship will be won or lost, on the Par 3s and Par 5s.

He's a longshot for a reason, having failed to earn a win on tour or finish inside the Top 30 at the first two majors of the year. But I do think his historical success in USGA events coupled with his play this season makes him worthy of a light sprinkle.

From Iain MacMillan - Y.E. Yang +6000

Golf fans will remember Y.E. Yang from his historic win at the 2009 PGA Championship, becoming the first male golfer from an Asian country to win a major championship, and also the first to catch Tiger Woods on a Sunday at a major.

He overcame a two-shot deficit to be Woods by three strokes.

Now, at 51 years old, he's just beginning his career on the Champions Tour. He has yet to capture a win, but he's been lurking on the leaderboard on Sundays. He has three top-10 finishes across his last six starts, including a 9th-place finish at last week's DICK's Sporting Goods Open.

His recent form alone makes him a great bet at 60/1 to win his first U.S. Senior Open.

2023 U.S. Senior Open Prediction

From In The BAG - Jerry Kelly +1400, Ernie Els +1600

While Steve Stricker and Steven Ames have dominated on tour this year, and while Padraig Harrington is the defending champion coming off his first win of the season, I like a couple of guys down the odds board as my picks to win.

Let's start with Jerry Kelly. Not only is he from Wisconsin (hello hometown hero!), he's playing great this season and has narrowly won this event twice before.

Kelly has runner-up finished in the US Senior Open in 2018 and 2019 and has finished in the Top 10 in this event each of the last four times it's been played.

This season, Kelly is second in driving accuracy, 11th in total driving, 24th in approach, second in scrambling, and sixth in putting.

Kelly finished T-2 and T-11 in his last two events, giving him plenty of momentum heading into this one and I love his chances on a course he's surely familiar with.

As for Ernie Els, he's also won the U.S. Open twice and has finished T-17 and T-13 in his first two senior U.S. Opens. But what I like most about his game coming in is his recent performances.

Els is coming off a T-3 performance at last week's event and has been T-10 or better in all three of his most recent events. He finished T-2 in the first major of the Champions Tour this season, finishing at -17 under at The Tradition. At a course where I think you need to go low to win, Els has the game to do just that.

Els is 19th in total driving including fourth in driving distance. He's 27th in scrambing and 10th in putting average. But it's his third-place ranking in approach, sixth in Par-5 scoring and first in Par-3 scoring that makes me really feel he's positioned to win this tournament.

From Iain MacMillan - Alex Cejka +4100

Alex Cejka has already won two majors on the PGA Tour Champions circuit, so I'm surprised that we're able to get him here at 41/1. He won the Regions Tradition and Senior PGA Championship both in 2021, and he has had some solid finishes this year.

He finished 2rd at the Invited Celebrity Classic and a T9 and T12 finish in the first two majors of the season.

In my opinion, he's the best value bet on the board.

So there you have it. Our picks to win the U.S. Senior Open. It should be an entertaining tournament with plenty of birdies. Hopefully when the final putt drops, we'll also see some extra cash in our bank accounts too.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change