Indiana Could Make Oddsmakers Look Foolish in 2021

The Indiana Hoosiers’ magical 2020 season appears to be the equivalent of Lou Bega’s “Mambo No 5” - a one-hit wonder never to be heard from again with the exception of the occasional highlight of that specific era. 

Oddsmakers, however, are about to have a little more “Tom Allen” on their minds, and a little more “Michael Penix Jr.'' by their side than they once planned.

So why is there little love for one of college football’s most compelling storylines from a season ago?

For starters, their road remains treacherous. Indiana a season ago delivered against the 14th toughest schedule in the country. This year, it’s still very tough; ranking 21st in the country and opening their season on the road at No. 18 Iowa, while also welcoming No. 8 Cincinnati, and No. 4 Ohio State to “The Rock.” IU got huge wins a season ago against then-ranked Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with their only regular season loss coming by a touchdown in a wild game on the road against Justin Fields and the No. 3 ranked Buckeyes.

Can the Hoosiers actually contend for a Big Ten Championship?

WynnBET Sportsbook projects IU at 7.5 total wins, with slight money favoring the over (-110), compared to even money on the under (+100).

Even with a challenging schedule, the Hoosiers should clear that hurdle and remain in contention for a Big Ten title at odds of +3000, or 30/1.

Indiana has balance, experience and talent at every level for 2021. Penix Jr. is an undervalued Heisman candidate contender (+3000 for Top 3, +10000 to win it all) after making some early noise a season ago. He tore his ACL six games in, but threw for 1,645 passing yards, 14 touchdowns plus two more on the ground, and threw just four interceptions.

He’ll also have his favorite receiver in Ty Fryfogle returning to the mix after averaging nearly 20 yards/catch in 2020. Defensively, All American linebacker Micah McFadden’s leadership will be paramount to navigate a Hoosiers team that was elite in taking the ball away a season ago with 17 interceptions in just eight games, second best in FBS despite playing five fewer games than Georgia Southern who finished with 18.

The Hoosiers’ experience is what is being overlooked the most. 17 of 22 starters return to the mix, all of which helped IU become a national story and win meaningful Big Ten games with few fans in the stands to support them. The rematch game against Ohio State in Bloomington on October 23rd will most certainly be circled.

WynnBET has IU sitting several teams behind the heavy favorite Buckeyes (-175), Wisconsin (+400), Penn State (+900), Iowa (+1000) and Michigan (+2000).

With this much talent returning, especially if Penix stays healthy (which is a massive ask considering he’s had season-ending injuries the past three seasons), Indiana should exceed Vegas’ expectations in their “prove it” year.

PREDICTION: OVER 7.5 WINS (-110)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS

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