Indiana vs. Cincinnati Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 4

Sep 3, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Ben Bryant (6) passes in
Sep 3, 2022; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Ben Bryant (6) passes in / Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Cincinnati may not be a College Football Playoff contender like they were in 2021, but they a firmly in the mix for a New Year's Six Bowl once again.

The Bearcats play host to Big Ten foe Indiana on Saturday afternoon in hopes of bolstering their record ahead of conference play.

Cincy has looked strong despite losing a handful of NFL prospects from last season's team, competing with Arkansas on the road and winning convincingly in their next two games. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have had three close games against varying degrees of competition.

Will some regression hit the 3-0 Hoosiers or can they pull a road upset as three score underdogs?

Here are the odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:

Indiana vs. Cincinnati Odds, Spread and Total

Indiana vs. Cincinnati Betting Trends

  • Indiana is 12-18-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog under Tom Allen
  • Cincinnati is 16-13 ATS as a double digit favorite under Luke Fickell
  • Cincinnati has gone OVER in all three games and Indiana has gone over in two of three

Indiana vs. Cincinnati Prediction and Pick

I think this is setting up for a Cincy blowout.

There is a case to be made that Indiana should be 1-2, not 0-3, and in the game I project as a winner, they got shutout at half to Idaho. In the other, they needed a coin flip call to go their way against Illinois and and overtime victory at home to knock off Western Kentucky.

Cincinnati, despite playing an above average SEC school on the road in the opening game, is 15th in yards per play and top 10 in line yards. Compare that to an Indiana offense that is below the national average in YPP and success rate, and there is a mismatch on both sides of the ball.

Indiana was out gained by more than a yard per play to Western Kentucky at home and I expect the Bearcats offense to do the same here. However, IU won't match Cincy on the scoreboard. Fickell's defense has reloaded and are top 25 in success rate allowed and top 10 in terms of generating havoc.

I make this game Cincinnati -19, so I'm looking to grab this spread below the key number of -17 and cash this ticket.