Indianapolis Colts 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich is no stranger to coaching different quarterbacks.

From Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett, to Philip Rivers and now Carson Wentz, Reich was supposed to have his fourth signal caller in four years heading into the 2021 season. With the recent news that Wentz's foot injury will require surgery, the number of quarterbacks will easily move to five at a minimum.

The 2020 season is where bettors can gain a strong perspective on what this season should theoretically entail with Wentz in the mix. The Colts brought in Rivers after 15 seasons with the Chargers, and after a bit of a shaky start, including handing the Jaguars their lone win of the season in Week 1, Rivers finished up a very efficient campaign before riding off into the sunset.

So, what led to his success? For starters, the Colts protected him, and in turn, he protected the football. Of RIvers' 11 interceptions, only eight of them came after the first two weeks of the season.

Indianapolis rode their powerful offensive line throughout the season, highlighting a strong rushing attack led by rookie running back Jonathan Taylor as well as their highly-rated run defense into the postseason, falling just short on the road at Buffalo 27-24 in the Wild Card round.

Indianapolis Colts 2021 Outlook

Wentz stands atop the podium for the most impactful moves the team made heading into 2021, notably because of the variance that comes with it. In 2017, Wentz was on his way to becoming MVP of the league before going down with a torn ACL in their 13th game of the season. Since then, it's been a roller coaster for Wentz, particularly in 2020 when he led the NFL in interceptions and lost his starting spot to Jalen Hurts.

Now reunited with Frank Reich, Wentz's offensive coordinator during his most productive time in Philadelphia, the two will rely heavily upon each other for the Colts to take the next step. With Wentz eventually under center and healthy, Indianapolis believes Wentz can give them Rivers' type of production at a minimum, knowing the ceiling is substantially higher in this offense. The biggest question now becomes who fills the gap until he's back out on the field. Second-year quarterback Jacob Eason is the backup for now, but the team could decide to make a preseason trade for a veteran like Nike Foles or Gardner Minshew.

Second-year running back Jonathan Taylor should lead a very solid run offense, with perhaps the top offensive line in the NFL paving the way. The Colts solved their issue at left tackle picking up former Chief Eric Fisher to anchor Wentz's blindside. Indianapolis also returns T.Y. Hilton back to the mix on offense, and second-year wide receiver Michael Pittman should take another step forward in this offense as well. Running back Nyheim Hines actually led all Colts in receptions a season ago, stressing the importance of development for Indy's wide receivers.

On defense, for as dominant as the Colts were against the run in 2020, their need to improve the pass rush will be key. They traded for DeForest Buckner from San Francisco for a first-round pick and spent early draft capital on high motor players that should notably improve their sack totals.

Outside linebacker Darius Leonard continues to lead the way on defense, making his third All-Pro selection a season ago. Leonard in just 14 games led the Colts with 86 solo tackles and 132 combined, more than 21 and 40 tackles respectively over their second best option. He's great, but he'll need more help from Bobby Okereke and Zaire Franklin. In the secondary, Xavier Rhodes was re-signed and Kenny Moore should continue to play at a dominant level.

Indianapolis Colts 2021 NFL Draft

The Colts made the pass rush a key priority in the draft, selecting Michigan edge rusher Kwity Paye at No. 21 overall, and then added another edge player in the second with Vanderbilt's Dayo Odeyingbo. Paye is likely the top option to replace longtime veteran Justin Houston on the outside.

With no third round pick available, Indianapolis added more depth to the tight end position with SMU's Kylen Granson, as well as Florida safety Shawn Davis in the 5th.

Indianapolis Colts Odds: Division (+160), Conference (+1100), Super Bowl (+2800)

With uncertainty at the most important position, oddsmakers at WynnBET Sportsbook originally posted the Colts as the slight favorites at -110 odds over the Titans to take home the AFC South in 2021. Now with Wentz set to undergo foot surgery, the Colts (+160) trail the Titans (-150) for second in the division, with the Jaguars (+750) and Texans (+2500) pulling up the rear.

Despite being the favorite to win the division, the Colts remain at +1100 odds to win the AFC. Their Super Bowl futures adjusted slightly from +2500 odds to +2800. Vegas appears to have the Colts as a solid playoff team, but not much more than that.

Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Win Total: 9 WINS | OVER (-115), UNDER (-105)

Editor's Note: The oddsmakers at WynnBET have since moved the Colts win total number to 8.5 as of August 4, 2021.

Ben Heisler:

If everything clicks for the Colts, they're more than a 9-win team. There's no glaring weaknesses on the team, unless Carson Wentz is bad or gets hurt (whoops), and that position alone can play such a massive role in setting the tone for the season.

I'm buying the Reich/Wentz relationship and him being an effective quarterback whisperer for the 28-year old. Watching Philip Rivers shine as a 38-year old with diminishing skills makes me think this can work, especially now that Wentz can work on avoiding the whiplash that came behind Philadelphia's struggles on the offensive line last year. Wentz hangs onto the ball too long and will make several costly throws, but he should take a heavy sigh of relief knowing that he'll be protected in Indianapolis.

The rest of the offense is in great shape. Jonathan Taylor can be a workhorse back, Nyheim Hines can play the "Austin Eckler" role as a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield, and second-year receiver Michael Pittman has the talent to be a true No. 1 option, but he'll need to establish a relationship with Wentz early in Training Camp.

The defense put in the pieces to fix their biggest issues from a season ago, so it's a solid unit in a very winnable devision with Tennessee, who have some legitimate concerns coming into the season.

Assuming the Colts address Wentz's injury with a veteran presence, give me the over for Indy, slightly, as Wentz recovers from both literally and figuratively, "getting off on the wrong foot."

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (-115)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 11 WINS

Donnavan Smoot:

I understand everyone it's easy to bash on Carson Wentz right now, but I am all in on Wentz and the Colts this year. Even with the Tennessee Titans trading for Julio Jones, this will be the Colts’ year to win the AFC South. 

First off, their defense is one of the most opportunistic in the league. Indianapolis ranked second in turnover differential last year at +10. With Darius Leonard leading the way, the Colts should be able to create turnovers and give their offense the ball to make plays. 

The Colts offense has arguably the best offensive line in the league, a dynamic, young running back and a quarterback looking for redemption. What’s not to love? 

Seriously, I do believe in Carson Wentz. The situation in Indianapolis is eerily similar to the Philadelphia's in 2017, when Wentz was at his best. Now that he’s paired with Frank Reich, good things will come. 

The Colts lost the division last season because of a tiebreaker and had Phillp Rivers on the way out the door as their quarterback. Wentz is young, has talent and will make this team a better one. 

I'm in on the Colts, but only if Wentz is able to get on the field. In the past, he's shown that he's injury prone and the news about his foot injury causes concern again. Wentz is going to be out indefinitely. If his time on the sideline is longer rather than shorter than my entire outlook on the Colts is different for 2021.

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (-115)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 12 WINS

Peter Dewey:  

As soon as the Carson Wentz era in Indianapolis got under way, it has come to a screeching halt. Wentz is out for 5-12 weeks with after undergoing foot surgery, and with that timetable he could miss a significant portion of the 2021 season.

Wentz and Frank Reich were reunited this offseason and looked to have a chance to build on what was a strong 2020 season when Phillip Rivers was under center for the Colts. 

Wentz's injury throws a little bit of a curveball at Indy, and it doesn't seem like he will be healthy to play the majority of the season for the Colts.

The return of Marlon Mack gives Indy one of the best backfields in football between him, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines, but the question will be if Jacob Eason or Brett Hundley can carry the load at quarterback the first few weeks of the season.

The Colts defense was great last season, as Indy allowed the eight-fewest yards in the league and had the second-best run defense in football. The addition of pass rusher Kwity Paye in the 2021 NFL Draft, who is +900 on WynnBET to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, should help the Colts repeat that defensive performance in 2021. 

I simply don't see the Colts being a playoff team if they don't have Wentz, and oddsmakers have moved their odds to win the division back to +155 after opening as the -110 favorite. I'm fading the Colts unless they find a solution at quarterback that is more proven than their current depth chart possesses.

PREDICTION: UNDER 9 WINS (-105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 8 WINS

Iain MacMillan:

It’s no secret that the success of the Indianapolis Colts comes down to the performance of newly acquired quarterback Carson Wentz. He admittedly looked dreadful for the Philadelphia Eagles last season, but that can happen when the offensive line is giving up 4.1 sacks per game, which was an entire sack worse than the next closest team. Now he gets to play behind an offensive line that gave up the second fewest sacks per game in 2020, allowing only 1.2 per contest.

With Wentz now out for up to 12 weeks due to a foot injury, all of the optimism now comes into question. It's a mystery how long the quarterback will be out for, as the timeline given states it could be as short as five weeks. If it's on the shorter end of things, Wentz will still see action for the majority of the season barring another injury.

The Colts also boast a solid defense, ranking 9th in 2020 in yards allowed per game at 335.9, and 11th in opponent points per game at 22.9.

Indianapolis should have no issue handling two of the three teams inside its division. The Jacksonville Jaguars are still a few years away from being contenders, and the Houston Texans might be the worst team in the NFL. A point that hurts the Colts win total, is their extra 17th game opponent is the defending Super Bowl champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

I have high hopes for the Colts in 2021, and I'm not going to let the Wentz injury sway my feelings too much.

PREDICTION: OVER 9 WINS (-115)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 12 WINS

Will the Indianapolis Colts Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (+160), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (-220)

Ben Heisler:

I have the Colts winning the division this year at 11-6, so a playoff spot should be no surprise.

The middle of the schedule opens up nicely for them, with matchups against the New York Jets, Jacksonville and Houston in a five-week stretch: three of the worst projected teams this season.

The Colts' have the talent to be a 12-13 win team, but with the swirling concerns about Wentz's injury, that could set them back a tad.

Ultimately, the Wentz experiment works out, with the ideal cast around him to be successful.

PREDICTION: YES (-220)

Donnavan Smoot:

I see the Colts winning the division, therefore they will be in the playoffs. I do think the race with the Titans will be close. I just have more faith in the Colts’ defense. The real mystery is how far will the Colts go. 

I think the Colts are a team set for heartbreak in the Divisional Round. They would need a lot of things to go their way to make it to the championship game. What will ultimately stop them from making a deep run are the turnover and injury issues that come with Wentz. In tight spots, he gets antsy and likes to force. If the Colts can keep that down, then Wentz can manage the game and let the playmakers take them far.  If they can keep him upright, the Colts will be just fine.

PREDICTION: YES (-220)

Peter Dewey: 

The Colts finished 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers looking like a shell of himself at quarterback. Wentz, while he’s had his struggles, has a lot more upside this season and a strong running game to back him up.

WynnBET had the Colts favored to win the AFC South at -110 odds, but they have fallen quickly in the aftermath of the Wentz injury. I would have had the Colts as the favorite to win the division, but Wentz's injury has me cautious about picking Indy to make the playoffs this season.

Until Wentz is officially back in Week 1, I'm not going to take the Colts to make the postseason this year.

PREDICTION: NO (+160)

Iain MacMillan:

The Colts made the 2020 playoffs with an aging quarterback that couldn’t throw the ball more than 25 yards down field. Don’t get me wrong, I love Philip Rivers, but he hurt the Colts last season more than he helped them. It didn’t help that two of their top young receivers, Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr,m both spent time on the IR.

The quarterback position is once again a question mark with Wentz out for 5-12 weeks with a foot injury, but the Colts still have other aspects of their team that they can rely on.

First round pick Kwity Paye, who many regarded as one of the top pass rushers in the NFL Draft, should give their defense the extra boost that it needs.

There’s nothing that will lead me to believe the Colts will miss the playoffs in 2021.

PREDICTION: YES (-220)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Tennessee Titans and check out our earlier team-by-team previews for the NFC South.

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