Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Saturday, Feb. 3 (Target Total)

Feb 4, 2023; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Tre King (0) reacts after scoring against
Feb 4, 2023; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Tre King (0) reacts after scoring against / Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor and Iowa State meet in a ranked-on-ranked matchup between Big 12 rivals on Saturday.

The Bears defense has come into question in league play and it won't get an easier with an elite Iowa State team heading to town. The Cyclones are underdogs, but bolster one of the best defenses in the country that will make life difficult for the Bears' elite offense.

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Iowa State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread and Total

Baylor vs. Iowa State Betting Trends

  • Baylor is 13-7 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Iowa State is 13-7 ATS this season
  • Iowa State is 1-4 ATS away from home this season

Iowa State vs. Baylor How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, February 3rd
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Foster Pavilion
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
  • Iowa State Record: 16-4
  • Baylor Record:  15-5

Iowa State vs. Baylor Key Players to Watch

Iowa State

Tamin Lipsey: To win on the road in Big 12 play, you need elite guard play. Enter: sophomore guard Lipsey, who is averaging a team high 13.9 points per game and is averaging five rebounds and nearly six assists while swiping more than three steals per game. The Baylor defense has struggled in Big 12 play, can Lipsey have a big outing to secure a road win?


RayJ Dennis: Dennis was massive in the team's come from behind road win at UCF on Wednesday, dishing out eight assists. He is a dangerous shooter from the perimeter, hitting only nearly 38% of his three's, but his ability to create for the rest of the talented Baylor offense that makes him so valuable.

Iowa State vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick

The key for Baylor in this one is protecting the rock. Iowa State forces turnovers at the second highest rate in the country, forcing opponents to cough up the rock on more than 26% of its possessions, but Baylor is adept at moving the ball safely, third in Big 12 play in turnover percentage.

Further, the Bears are still a dangerous three-point shooting team. Despite falling off in Big 12 play, shooting 31% from beyond the arc, the team is shooting over 41% from beyond the arc over the balance of the season, a testament of just how dangeorous this team is from three.

Iowa State will give up the perimeter shots, the team is allowing the highest opponent three-point rate in conference play at over 48%, which may play into Baylor's hands on offense.

However, I can't trust the Bears to win with margin, the defense is simply too poor, 12th in effective field goal percentage allowed in Big 12 play. Iowa State is adept at getting inside and can challenge Baylor at the rim, where the team is outside the top 300 in field goal percentage allowed near the cup. It's worth noting that Iowa State is 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at the rim this season.

I'll avoid the point spread and instead go over the total in what should be a back-and-forth affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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