Iowa State vs. Houston Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Monday, Feb. 19 (Back Underdogs in Big 12 Showdown)
By Reed Wallach
The top two teams in the Big 12 do battle for the second time this season in Houston, Texas on Monday night.
Iowa State has emerged as a Big 12 title, and NCAA Tournament, contender with wins over the likes of Houston already this season. Now the series flips to Houston with the Cougars looking to even the series score against another elite defense.
Can Iowa State keep pace with the Cougars, who have won every home game by double digits this season? Here's our best bet for Monday's matchup:
New BETMGM Users, sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets with a first bet of just $5!
Iowa State vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total
Houston vs. Iowa State Betting Trends
- Iowa State is 18-7 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Iowa State has covered in eight of the last 10 games this season
- Iowa State has covered in five of seven games as an underdog
- Houston has gone UNDER in 10 of 15 games this season
Iowa State vs. Houston How to Watch
- Date: Monday, February 19th
- Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Venue: Fertitta Center
- How to Watch (TV): ESPN
- Iowa State Record: 20-5
- Houston Record: 22-3
Iowa State vs. Houston Key Players to Watch
Iowa State
Tamin Lipsey: Lipsey scored a team-high 14 points for the Cyclones in the four-point win back on January 9th, but will be needed to raise his level even more on the road against Houston, who has the best defense in the country. It's worth noting that Lipsey has seen his three-point shot fall off in Big 12 play, just 25% in conference games after being above 38% in nonconference play.
Houston
Jamal Shead: Shead is the team's primary ball handler, but must be more efficient shooting after making only one of eight three's in the first meeting. Shead has struggled on the road at times but has also had monster outings at home, most recently on Saturday against Texas when he grabbed 11 rebounds and dished out six assists to go with 16 points and six steals.
Iowa State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
These are two of the three best defenses in the country, relentless in forcing turnovers and on the interior. Both teams have similar principles, adept at forcing turnovers while blitzing ball handlers, and shutting down the inside (each team allows a 42% three-point rate or higher).
Houston's offense has been paced by its ability to clean the class, generating the fourth most second chances per field goal attempt, which can be utilized against Iowa State's defense that has the lowest defensive rebounding rate in Big 12 play.
With that being said, I'm concerned about Houston's ability to win by double digits against the Cyclones' compact defense. The Cougars play incredibly slow and are 11th in effective field goal percentage. If the team can't make shots, especially from outside the paint, I can't trust the Cougs to cover this spread.
Meanwhile, Iowa State's offense will have its hands full, but the unit is more reliable than the Cougars, better at getting to the free throw line, and ninth in effective field goal percentage in league play.
This game should have limited possessions, neither team broke 60 in the first meeting, and with Iowa State's ability to protect the rock (third in Big 12 turnover percentage), I'll take them to cover the big spread.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!