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Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction and Odds for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 (Canes will Contain Cyclones)

By Ben Heisler

University of Miami guard Charlie Moore are just two more wins away from the Final Four, while he returns to his hometown of Chicago for the Sweet 16.
University of Miami guard Charlie Moore are just two more wins away from the Final Four, while he returns to his hometown of Chicago for the Sweet 16. / Ken Ruinard / USA TODAY Network / USA
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The final NCAA Sweet 16 men's tournament matchup of Friday night tips off just before 10 p.m. ET as two double digit seeds look to move on to the Elite 8.

The No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones, fresh off their victories vs. LSU and Wisconsin face off against No. 10 Miami (Florida), who upset both No. 7 USC and No. 3 Wisconsin on their route to the Sweet 16.

After opening near a pick 'em, one team has jumped out considerably in the betting markets, but is it the right side?

Let's take a look at the latest odds for Friday's nightcap from Chicago over at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Iowa State vs. Miami Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Iowa State: +2.5 (-110)
  • Miami: -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Iowa State: +800
  • Miami: -1400

Total: 143 (Over -110/Under -110)

Iowa State vs. Miami Analysis

Iowa State Cyclones

  • Regular Season Record: 22-12
  • ATS Record: 19-15
  • Over/Under Record: 15-19
  • SoS: 25th
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 103.9 (156)
  • Defensive Efficiency: 88.7 (5)
  • eFG%: 49.4% (207)
  • FT%: 68.4% (290)
  • 3PT%: 31.9% (263)
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +50000

Miami Hurricanes

  • Regular Season Record: 23-10
  • ATS Record: 20-15
  • Over/Under Record: 20-15
  • SoS: 52nd
  • Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 114.8 (18)
  • Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (123)
  • eFG%: 53.8% (30)
  • FT%: 74.5% (84)
  • 3PT%: 34.4% (121)
  • Last Year’s Tournament Result: N/A
  • Odds to win National Championship: +20000

Iowa State vs. Miami Prediction and Pick

I've been fading this Iowa State team since they entered the tournament, and I've eaten it the last two games as they pulled off impressive wins against No. 6 LSU on Friday, as well as No. 3 Wisconsin on Sunday.

To the Cyclones' credit, their defense has been spectacular, making up for the fact that they've somehow won two NCAA Tournament games scoring 59 and 54 points respectively.

However, I also see some regression coming and I don't think it will be pretty.

Miami's offense from an adjusted efficiency standpoint is the best they've seen so far in the tournament. The last time they scored less than 61 points was in a 61-60 loss back on January 22 to Florida State. That isn't to say Iowa State can't keep up defensively (they rank 5th in adjusted defense), but the Hurricanes guard as well; limiting two very good offenses in USC and Auburn to 66 and 61 points.

Between the Canes' improved defense, as well as their ability to spread out Iowa State's defense when they have the ball, I just don't see it for the Cyclones beyond this point. The line has moved a full point and a half in favor of Miami since opening and I think the early move is the right move.

PICK: Miami -2.5 (-110)

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