Betsided

Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction and Odds (Hawkeyes in Play for a Senior Day Upset)

By Ben Heisler

Keegan Murray and the Iowa Hawkeyes have their offense rolling down the stretch, winning eight of their last nine Big Ten games.
Keegan Murray and the Iowa Hawkeyes have their offense rolling down the stretch, winning eight of their last nine Big Ten games. / Matthew Holst/GettyImages
facebooktwitterreddit

The No. 1 seed in the Big Ten could be up for grabs at Assembly Hall in Champaign when the No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini host the No. 24 Iowa Hawkeyes at the State Farm Center on Senior Night.

The Hawkeyes have stormed down the finish line, winning eight of their last nine games in conference play; playing some of their best basketball of the season. A win today would keep them in the No. 4 seed.

Meanwhile, Illinois is in striking distance of the No. 1 seed and a shared Big Ten title, but would need Wisconsin to lose to Nebraska today. However, should the Fighting Illini lose to Iowa, they could fall all the way to the No. 3 seed, with Purdue grabbing the No. 2 seed.

Here are the latest odds over at WynnBET Sportsbook:

Iowa vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Iowa +4 (-110)
  • Illinois -4 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Iowa +150
    Illinois -180

Total:

  • 154 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Iowa vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

The Hawkeyes have been outstanding as of late and I think they can keep it going even in a tough road environment this evening in Champaign.

Let's start with the offense; Iowa's calling card this season. Via CBB Analytics, the Hawkeyes are in the 99th percentile this season in offensive rating and 82nd in true shooting percentage. In their last five games, they've actually been even better; coming in in the 100th percentile for offensive rating (by almost four full points), as well as 88th in true shooting percentage.

What's also been eye opening is their improved effort on the defensive end. In their last give, Iowa has a defensive rating of 99.4 (71st percentile) compared to 101.7 (53rd percentile) on the season.

So can't the Fighting Illini just slow them down? To a certain extent, they can try, but Illinois does not match up well vs. Iowa when they try to run. Via Action Network, Illinois ranks 322nd in transition efficiency, bottom 50 in all of college basketball.

Illinois, for what it's worth, has had the Hawkeyes' number in these types of situations in the past.

A 4-seed may not feel like a lot to play for, but if you're Iowa, getting a double-bye for the upcoming Big Ten Tournament is a big win. Expect them to keep it close today on the road.

LEAN: Iowa +4 (-110)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE.

Home/College Basketball Predictions and Picks