Iowa vs. Maryland Prediction, Odds and Spread for College Football Week 5

Sep 25, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3)
Sep 25, 2021; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Maryland Terrapins enter Week 5 undefeated and will play host to No. 5 Iowa, who will look to keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive.

The Terps have been stuck in a rebuild for years now, but finally seem to be poised to break into the Top 25 with consistency behind the play of Taulia Tagovailoa, who has revitalized the program in his junior year.

Iowa enters as a road favorite on Friday night in what should be a raucous College Park crowd, can the Terps pull the upset. 

Check out the early odds at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Iowa vs. Maryland Spread, Odds and Total


Iowa: -4 (-110)

Maryland: +4 (-110)



Total: 46 (Over -110/Under -110)

Iowa vs. Maryland Prediction and Pick

I grabbed Maryland +3.5 late on Sunday night, so I’m also a believer in betting them at +4. 

I’m not truly sold on this Iowa team that has benefitted from a plus-five turnover margin to beat the likes of Indiana (two interceptions returned for touchdowns) and Iowa State (outgained by 166 yards). 

Iowa is going to look to pound the rock, it runs the ball on more than 56% of its plays, and Maryland has done a real solid job this season at building a strong defensive line that limits success and explosiveness on the ground. Overall, Maryland is 31st in defensive success rate this season.

There are still concerns about Iowa's quarterback Spencer Petras, who is averaging less than six yards per pass attempt and a Hawkeyes offense that is 119th in yards per play nationally. 

However, this is an elite defense that is, as we mentioned, opportunistic with the ball. The D has made up for some setbacks on the offensive side by setting up the offense with good field position

Overall though, I'm going to side with the Maryland offense to do enough damage to stay within a field goal at home. Tagovailoa has been putting together one of the strongest seasons of any quarterback in the country by nearly every metric. He is completing more than 75% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and one interception.

Iowa's defense will provide a stiff test for him, but the Terps have receivers on the outside to move the ball down the field and win the field position battle. I'm not expecting a ton of points in this one -- indicated by the low total -- but if Maryland is able to keep the Hawkeyes behind the sticks and force Petras to make plays down field, Iowa can be in for some harsh turnover regression.

Keep an eye on the Iowa offensive front, this team is not generating much push, unlike your typical Kirk Ferentz team, ranking 119th in offensive line yards, per CollegeFootballData. On the other side, the Terps are 43rd in the same metric.

I peg this one coming down to the wire, and I'll side with the more trustworthy offense and Taulia to avoid a back breaking turnover and get a cover, maybe even a win.

Pick: Maryland +4

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