Iowa vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Tuesday, Feb. 20 (Target Total)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bets for Michigan State vs. Iowa on Tuesday, Feb. 20.

Feb 14, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Tyson Walker (2)
Feb 14, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Michigan State Spartans guard Tyson Walker (2) / Matthew O'Haren-USA TODAY Sports
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Michigan State's fine play continued over the weekend, going to rival Michigan and not allowing a field goal in the final seven minutes-plus to ensure a road victory.

The Spartans are back at home on Tuesday, hosting Iowa, who is trying to make a late NCAA Tournament push on the backs of an overtime home win against Wisconsin. Can the Hawkeyes score a win on the road against Michigan State?

Oddsmakers aren't bullish, but let's share a best bet on this Big Ten matchup:

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Iowa vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan State vs. Iowa Betting Trends

  • Michigan State is 15-10-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Iowa is 10-16 ATS this season
  • Michigan State is 12-4 ATS at home this season
  • Iowa has gone OVER in 17 of 26 games this season

Iowa vs. Michigan State How to Watch

  • Date: Tuesday, Feb. 20
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Jack Breslin Students Events Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Peacock
  • Iowa Record: 15-11
  • Michigan State Record: 17-9

Iowa vs. Michigan State Key Players to Watch

Iowa

Tony Perkins: Perkins scored the game winning bucket on Saturday to cap off a monster day in Iowa City, scoring 18 points, grabbing four rebounds and three assists. He'll look to keep the positive momentum rolling for the Hawkeyes as the offense looks to outpace Michigan State.

Michigan State

Tyson Walker: Walker scored 19 in the team's 10-point weekend victory against rival Michigan, adding three steals as well in a lockdown defensive effort. Walker has been playing his best ball of late, and now draws a vulnerable Iowa defense that has struggled staying in front of guards all season.

Iowa vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

To play Michigan State, you are paying top dollar after the team has rattled off three straight wins and five of the last six. Instead, I'm going to target the over between two strong offenses.

Iowa hasn't been able to shoot well this season from the perimeter, below the national average at about 33%, but the team's motion offense has been able to generate a ton of buckets from in close, shooting nearly 54% on two-point shots and 65% at the rim.

Further, Iowa is more than comfortable pulling up from mid-range against a lengthy Michigan State defense, shooting 45% on midrange jumpers according to Haslametrics, 22nd best in the country.

The Hawkeyes offense plays fast, 30th in the country in pace, which runs counter to Michigan State's 294th pace, but the Hawkeyes defense will open up plenty of scoring opportunities.

The Spartans are shooting 36% on three's this season, 45th best in the country, and Iowa is outside the top 300 nationally in terms of 'open 3 rate' according to ShotQuality. What that means is that a potent perimeter offense is going to get plenty of clean looks from deep to run up the score.

Iowa is going to push the pace and fail to slow down Michigan State, give me the over on Tuesday.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!