Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds: Value on the Total

Purdue continues to roll to start the year. The Boilermakers took care of business in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge earlier this week, decimating Florida State 93-65. Earlier this week, I ranked Purdue No. 1 in my weekly power rankings for BetSided.

Now, they will open Big Ten play a bit early against Iowa at Mackey Arena on Friday night. The Hawkeyes passed their first test of the season, beating Virginia on the road behind some fine perimeter shooting.

How should we break down this one between two of the three best offenses in the country? Let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Iowa vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Iowa: +12.5 (-110)
• Purdue: -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Iowa: +510
• Purdue: -730

Total: 159 (Over -110/Under -110)

Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Let's cut to the chase: Iowa stands no chance at slowing down this vaunted Purdue offense. The Hawkeyes have faced one team inside KenPom's top 200, and allowed 74 points to a poor Virginia offense.

Now, they go on the road to face Purdue, who has the best offense in the country, per KenPom. For reference, UVA is 74th.

The Boilermakers are going to hoist from deep, top 100 in three-point rate, but also clean up their misses with the likes of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams anchoring the No. 4 offensive rebounding team in the country.

For what it's worth, Iowa will get their points. The team is playing the seventh fastest pace on offense this season and posting a top 10 effective field goal rate. Schematically, Matt Painter's defense is going to cut off shots at the rim, which means they are going to allow opponent's to fire from beyond the arc. This plays right into Iowa's hands, though. The Hawkeyes have shooters all over and Purdue allows opponents to shoot three's at a top 20 rate this season.

I expect Purdue to flirt with triple digits on Friday night at home, but Iowa is in line to put up a big point total as well, leading me to the over.

PICK: OVER 159