Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction and Odds for Monday, Dec. 4 (Take Points with Hawkeyes)

College basketball betting preview, predictions and best bets for Big Ten action between Iowa and Purdue.

Ben Krikke (23) drives to the basket defended by Dorian James (5) Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023 at Carver
Ben Krikke (23) drives to the basket defended by Dorian James (5) Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2023 at Carver / Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen /
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Two of the best offenses in the country get together for Big Ten action on Monday night.

Purdue is off its first loss of the year, a road overtime defeat to Northwestern in its conference opener, and it won't get easier for Matt Painter's bunch when a potent Iowa offense comes to West Lafayette, Indiana.

Purdue is laying double digits at home as Iowa's defense may struggle against the size of Zach Edey, but can the team cover the spread?

Here is my betting preview for this Big Ten showdown on a quiet, Monday night slate:

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Iowa vs. Purdue Odds, Spread and Total

Iowa vs. Purdue How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, Dec. 4
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Mackey Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): Big Ten Network
  • Purdue Record: 5-2
  • Iowa Record: 7-1

Iowa vs. Purdue Key Players to Watch

Iowa

Ben Krikke: The Valparaiso transfer has hit the ground running for the Hawkeyes, averaging nearly 19 points per game on 61/50/75 shooting splits. With Edey taking up space on the interior, the senior forward's ability to stretch the floor should warp the Purdue defense. The Hawkeyes are 45th in the country in effective field goal percentage with Krikke leading the way.

Purdue

Zach Edey: The reigning National Player of the Year is still dominating, averaging nearly thes ame numbers as last year, 23 points, 11 rebounds and nearly three blocks, but he is even more imposing. He has nearly doubled his free throw rate, from about seven per game last year to 12 this year.

Iowa vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

Purdue is a devastating offense, fourth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric while shooting nearly 41% from beyond the arc. While the Boilermakers are coming off a loss on the road, I simply need to fade that type of shot making in a game that feature plenty of possessions and an Iowa offense that can keep pace with anybody.

Purdue is owed a 6% 3-point regression, per ShotQuality. That's a staggering mark for an offense that is no doubt elite, but maybe flying a bit too high early in the season, and inflating its metrics a bit.

On the other side, Purdue's defense is elite on the interior, allowing only a 30% rim rate this season, one of the lowest marks in the country (342nd), but the team is owed a 7% increase in opponent's three-point shooitng. Another sign this team may be inflated in the market.

Iowa is an elite shooting team, hitting on nearly 36% of it's 3s and posting the 45th best effective field goal mark in the country. Further, Purdue won't turn you over, 341st in turnover percentage, so that works for an elite ball handling unit in Iowa (fifth lowest turnover rate).

I think Iowa can hang here with Purdue due for some poor shooting splits after a torrid start to the year.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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