Is There Value in the Heisman Trophy Betting Market?

Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) celebrates with teammates after scoring a
Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) celebrates with teammates after scoring a / Joshua A. Bickel/Columbus Dispatch / USA

The Heisman Trophy Futures market was shaken up again on Saturday when Alabama lost to Texas A&M. The favorite for the award, Crimson Tide quarterback Bryce Young, was solid in the loss but predictably ceded ground to the field. 

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral, who was tied with Young two weeks ago heading into the Alabama-Ole Miss game, is now tied again with Young at +200 at WynnBET Sportsbook once again. 

Are those two the runaway candidates? The only other player below +1000 is Ohio State’s quarterback CJ Stroud. 

After that, Texas’ running back Bijan Robinson, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, and the 'Field' are +1500 to win the Heisman. Then there’s a massive drop to +6000, and it’s tough to draw up a path for any of them to make a run considering two names not listed are part of the ‘Field.’

Let’s assess the odds and see if there is any value in the market. 

Young vs. Corral 

Both are at the top of the odds board and rightfully so, but I can’t recommend betting either of the QB's at this price. 

Both have gaudy stat lines, Young has a 20-3 touchdown to interception while Corral is yet to throw an interception, but I don’t have an edge on either player after the Crimson Tide loss. 

I’d look further down the board. 

Is Stroud the Most Worthy Heisman Candidate on Ohio State?

Stroud has rounded into form after some shaky moments early in his Ohio State career, but are we sure he is worthy of being +500? I’d argue that his running back, TreVeyon Henderson, may have a case. 

While the volume isn’t there yet, the freshman has taken over the starting running back job and has been dominant thus far. He is averaging nearly nine yards per carry on 70 carries and has 154 receiving yards on seven catches. All together, he has 11 total touchdowns in six games. 

I’m not sure if there’s enough time for him to put up the stat line requisite of the Heisman, but the Buckeyes have high profile games against Penn State and Michigan ahead, there will be moments. If he outshines Stroud, which is possible with his big play ability, then he can run his way into the race.

Henderson is part of the ‘Field’ group, so he is +1500.

The Field

I mentioned Henderson as one dark horse, and I’ll also throw out Michigan State’s Kenneth Walker. The Spartans are undefeated and now inside the top 10 behind Walker III, a Wake Forest transfer, who is leading the nation in rushing with more than 150 yards per game. Walker scored last weekend on the longest play from scrimmage in school history. 

Both Big Ten running backs make a formidable duo to add to your portfolio. 

As for some other listed names, I'm not interested. Bijan Robinson is going to compile a ton of stats, but Texas has two losses on the year. It’s going to be tough for a running back to knock off the likes of Young and Corral on a non-contender.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s Ridder won’t have the stat line requisite of taking home the hardware despite his team likely running the table. Ridder only has 14 all-purpose touchdowns. For reference, Corral has 20 and nearly 200 more passing yards.

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