Is There Value on Astros to Come Back in World Series? (+200) to win Games 6 & 7

The Houston Astros have proven themselves to be one of the best teams in recent years. Many bet them to win the World Series before the season even started. Others waited until the beginning of the postseason, but, either way you slice it, the Astros were a good bet. Now, down 3-2 heading back to Houston, the Astros are the closest they have been all year to the title. They are also the closest they have been to being eliminated by the Braves. 

With Game 6 on the horizon, the odds for the Astros to win the World Series at WynnBET Sportsbook are +200. So, is this a good bet this late into the team’s World Series run? 

Considering the matchup they have tonight, and the momentum of coming off a win and heading home for Games 6 and 7, this does sound like a good bet. 

One major advantage the Astros have, aside from home field for the next two games, is their skill at hitting left-handed pitching. While we don’t know exactly who will start Game 7, tonight’s starter for the Braves is Max Fried. While Fried is an exceptional pitcher, he doesn’t match up well at all with the Astros lineup. This was made clear after Fried’s shaky start in Game 2 of this series. Fried coughed up six runs in five innings and looked pretty uncomfortable for much of the game. 

Fried’s relative ineffectiveness against the Astros is less on him and more of a testament to just how good Houston hits lefties. So far this postseason, the Astros are hitting .304 against lefties. No matter how good Fried is, or what adjustment he made between Game 2 and today, he can’t change his dominant arm. 

If the Astros manage to repeat their performance against Fried in Game 6, there is a good chance we see a Game 7 in this World Series. If that happens, Ian Anderson is expected to make the start for Houston. Unlike Fried, Anderson did not struggle at all in his Game 3 start against the Astros. Anderson held the Astros hitless over five innings, with four strikeouts and three walks. The strikeout to walk ratio isn’t the most inspiring, but, other than that, Anderson was lights out. If the trends are to be believed, Anderson should have a smoother game against the Astros than Fried does tonight. 

So, let’s assume that the Astros win tonight as-126 favorites. Then, we’re staring down the barrel of Game 7 at Houston. I wouldn’t expect the odds to be all that much different for Game 7 and for the Astros to be favored again. Therefore, if you are planning to ride the Astros in Games 6 & 7, it makes a lot more sense to bet them today +200 to win both games at plus money odds. The return will be significantly higher than two separate wagers in the -120/-130 range.