It's a Trap: Which College Football Odds are Most Deceiving in Week 12

When Clemson looks back, they see Wake Forest on their heels.
When Clemson looks back, they see Wake Forest on their heels. / Ken Ruinard / staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

Last week was interesting. Some games were nice, some games really hurt.

Many out there thought the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners were certain to take care of Big 12 Conference foe, No. 12 Baylor. Surely, the young phenom Caleb Williams will get the job done under center. He certainly would not, throwing two interceptions in a 27-14 loss. 

For all of those of you out there backing the Sooners and their Freshman quarterback, you’ve been duped.

The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers were expected to defeat their Sun Belt Conference opponent, the Georgia State Panthers, but it wasn’t so. Coastal Carolina’s quarterback Grayson McCall left the game just as soon as it started, and the Chanticleers’ offense was left in the hands of a less-impressive Bryce Carpenter. The Panthers not only covered a more than double-digit spread, but won straight up, 42-40. 

Chanticleers backers, you’ve been duped.

Let’s take a look at some potentially deceiving lines in Week 12, with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Wake Forest vs. Clemson (-4.5)

The Clemson Tigers are favored by 4.5 points against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. That would sound crazy if it were last year. Clemson by only 4.5 points?

This year, it still sounds crazy. Just not in the same way. Clemson is favored to Wake Forest?

Clemson is 7-3 this season, which is fine, but not by their standards. Even worse, they are just 2-8 against the spread.

The Tigers offense is averaging about 150 yards less of total offense per game than the Demon Deacons. That’s staggering. And while Clemson still has the better defense on paper, you still need to score more points to win, or to even cover the spread as 4.5 point favorites.

Arkansas vs. Alabama (-21)

The Arkansas Razorbacks are a quality opponent for the Alabama Crimson Tide. Are the Razorbacks going to win? Probably not, but they will be a much more formidable opponent compared to New Mexico State; who the Crimson Tide destroyed last week, 59-3.

Alabama has been favored by three touchdowns on five occasions this season, and in those games the Crimson Tide are 3-2. That’s not that impressive. 

In those contests as heavy favorites, Alabama failed to cover a 54-point spread against FCS Mercer, covered a 45-point spread against Southern Miss, covered a 24-point spread against Tennessee, failed to cover a 29.5-point spread against LSU, and covered a 51.5 points spread against New Mexico State. 

Arkansas is capable enough on both sides of the ball to keep this game tighter than three touchdowns.

Baylor vs. Kansas State (PK)

The Baylor Bears are now No. 11 in the AP Poll, they just defeated the then-No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners and they are in a pick’em game with the Kansas State Wildcats? Hmm, that seems wrong. 

Kansas State has played well this season, giving Oklahoma a run for their money in a 6-point loss on Oct. 2, and they are currently on a four-game winning streak, defeating West Virginia last week, 34-17.

All three of the Wildcats' losses this season were against more respected Big 12 conference members; the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Oklahoma, and the Iowa State Cyclones. They have failed to put away their biggest conference opponents and this week seems like a repeat of those games. 

Will it be a close game? Probably. Will Kansas State win? Probably not.

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