It's a Trap: Which MLB Odds Are Most Deceiving on Wednesday, May 18?

As I stated in yesterday’s version of this article, working as an oddsmaker is a tricky business. Sometimes they just get things wrong and we, as sports bettors, have to be there to capitalize. Well, turns out picking these spots can be hard at times too as was evidenced by yesterday’s Diamondbacks game. I should have stuck with my gut and faded them but I tried to get cute and got burned. 

But today is another day with another couple of games that I think have a ton of value with the underdog. So let’s dive in and pick a pair of games that fall into this category. All odds used are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Philadelphia Phillies -140 vs. Milwaukee Brewers

As is the case with most things baseball, this game will come down to the quality of the starters here. Particularly Blake Snell. The former Cy Young Award winner has been sidelined all year with an abductor injury and will make his season debut tonight against Philly. And while Snell struggled during the spring, his rehab stars have been very good. His final outing saw Snell pitch five innings of one-run ball for Triple-A El Paso. 

On the other hand, the Phillies will start Zach Wheeler in this game. Wheeler enters Wednesday with a 4.26 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 31 ⅔ innings of work so far in 2022. But, he appears to be regressing after a hot start and has been lit up more than once since opening day. He gave up six hits and three runs to the Dodgers last week as he is still searching for his second win of the year. 

I’m happy to see Wheeler and the Phillies here at what I think are high odds for a game like this. 

PICK: Padres +136

Chicago Cubs -142 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

This is another game I am going to side with the underdog based mostly on this pitching matchup. Though this game is a bit different as we don’t know who the matchup will feature yet. We do know two things. One is that Drew Smyly is getting the start for the Cubs. And two, he is a liability on the mound.

Smyly started off strong with two straight scoreless outings, but things have since taken a turn. He gave up four runs in five innings the last time he faced the Pirates in a game the Cubs eventually lost 4-2. In fact, the Cubs have lost the last four-game that Smyly pitched thanks to a 5.23 ERA this month. 

PICK: Pirates +142

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