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It’s a Trap: Which Week 3 NFL Lines are Most Deceiving

By Iain MacMillan

The Ravens and Lions Week 3 matchup has seen reverse line movement, as the Lions are now down to 8-point underdogs.
The Ravens and Lions Week 3 matchup has seen reverse line movement, as the Lions are now down to 8-point underdogs. / Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
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Sports betting isn’t as easy as wagering on the better team. The Kansas City Chiefs have proven that fact to us by going 1-11-1 against the spread in their last 13 games.

When looking at the board for an upcoming slate of NFL games, when you see a game that makes you think “well that team is obviously going to cover” then it’s usually a sign that you should look at it a little bit closer. Things aren’t always as they seem at first glance.

Afterall, sportsbooks crushed the public through the first two weeks of the season.

So as we look ahead to Week 3, which spreads are possible traps?

Let’s dive into a few.

All odds listed are via WynnBET Sportsbook.

Cardinals vs Jaguars (+7.5)

The Cardinals against the Vikings in Week 2 was a picture-perfect example of a trap line. It opened with the Cardinals set as 4.5-point favorites, everyone and their dog jumped on them, and then the line moved the opposite way down to 3.5.

The sharps knew what they were doing, and lo and behold, the Cardinals failed to cover the closing spread of 3.5, winning the game 34-33.

Here we are back in the exact same scenario, and people still haven’t learned their lesson as the public is all over Arizona once again. Who can blame them? The Cardinals are 2-0, Kyler Murray is playing like an MVP, and the Jaguars have been terrible.

Just keep in mind that the spread is above that magic number of seven.

I’m not saying the Jaguars are a sure bet, and I will personally still likely be betting on the Cardinals, but it’s not as obvious as you think. Don’t make Arizona your “can’t lose max bet lock of the decade”.

Ravens vs Lions (+8)

This is another case of reverse line movement like we saw last week with the Vikings vs. Cardinals game. The Ravens are getting all of the public money, and they’re getting hit hard. Despite that, the line has moved from Ravens -9 to Ravens -8, the opposite direction of where the money is going.

Sharps are on the Lions, and it could simply be because of how surprisingly poor the Ravens defense has been this year. Granted, they’ve played two strong offenses in the Raiders and Chiefs, but they are still 30th in opponent points per game (34) and 31st in opponent yards per game (448).

If the Lions are able to score at will, covering an 8-point spread could get tricky.

Jets vs Broncos (-10.5)

Yes, Zach Wilson and the Jets offense has looked abysmal through the first two weeks. Meanwhile the Broncos are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in the AFC. So with that being said, the Broncos should steamroll the Jets at Mile High Stadium, right?

Not so fast.

Double-digit spreads are tough to cover in the NFL, this isn’t college football. Also, the Jets defense has been better than you think. They rank 9th in the NFL in opponent yards per game (320.5) and 13th in opponent points per game (22).


That ain't bad.

Let’s not overreact to a small sample size of games here. I think the Broncos are a good team this year, but if Wilson can limit his turnovers, this game could remain close. Don’t be so quick to jump on the Broncos to cover.

Make your picks now at WynnBET.

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