Italian Open Round of 16 Prediction and Odds (Back Favorites with Quarterfinals on the Line)

The Italian Open is moving along with the Round of 16 upon us. This is a fast-paced tournament that sets up many of the players for the French Open at the end of the month. 

Some of the biggest names in the sport are in Rome, so let’s break down some of their matches and odds heading into the Round of 16. 

Rafael Nadal vs. Dennis Shapovalov Prediction

The history between these two is a one-sided story. In five matches, Nadal has won four times – including twice at this same event. Nadal won the last meeting (2021) in three sets and the time before that (2019) in two.

Nadal is a -800 favorite on the moneyline and even -230 to win in straight sets. The only value you can get here is by taking the UNDER 19.5 or UNDER 20.5 games. If that’s too much, then sit back and watch Nadal cruise to another win. 

Alexander Zverev vs. Alex de Minaur Prediction

These two have played each other every year since 2018 and Zverev is the most recent winner. He’s won five of the six matches they’ve played and has mainly done it in straight sets.

Zverev is a big favorite to reach the quarterfinals, but there isn’t much value at -350. That’s why for this match I’ll go to the exact set score and bet Zverev to win 2-0. He’s going to dominate on his service games, which he wins 84% of, and cruise to the quarters.

Novak Djokovic vs. Stan Wawrinka Prediction

With a trip to the quarterfinals on the line, I don’t see Djokovic dropping this game to Wawrinka. The two have played 25 times and Djokovic has won 19 of those matches, but they haven’t played since 2019.

While Wawrinka has the last two wins in the series, it's been years and Djokovic is on a mission. I expect Djokovic to be a massive favorite in this match, so the value will have to come from the exact set score or the under on games. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.