It’s a Trap: Which NFL Divisional Round Odds are Most Deceiving?

The NFL Super Wild Card round is over, but, the real fun is just getting started.

Now that a few of the “pretenders” have been dealt with, there are only contenders left for us to take a look at. While this does make for much more exciting football, it also makes our weekly trap games article a bit harder to find candidates for. Luckily, there is one game that I believe offers odds that just ‘aren’t quite there.’

That game is the San Francisco 49ers on the road at Lambeau Field to take on the 13-4 Green Bay Packers. 

This takes nothing away from the Packers. They are favored to win the Super Bowl for a reason, but I think that the spread on this game doesn’t feel quite right. While it has moved from 6 to 5.5 in the last few hours over at WynnBET Sportsbook, I still think that this is the best underdog value on the board for the Divisional Round. And the more I look at this game, the more I like the 49ers. 

The Packers are very suspect on the road during the playoffs under Aaron Rodgers. I had been living under the impression that the Packers were killers at home during the regular season or the playoffs. Well, I was wrong about that.

While the Packers were undefeated in the regular season at home, their stats at Lambeau aren’t all that during the playoffs. I've covered this here and there, but in a nutshell, the Packers have been knocked out of the playoffs six times in the last 18 years by losses at home. Additionally, when the temperatures are below 32, the Packers are 1-2 ATS in the Divisional Round at home. 

Diving into the matchup between these two teams right now, there is a lot to like about the 49ers. A lot of the areas in which the Packers struggle are things that the 49ers do well. For example, the Packers defense is ranked 31st in the NFL in terms of rushing yards per play allowed to opposing teams. They also rank 28th in opponent red zone scoring and 24th in opponent third-down conversions.

Why is this a problem for them specifically in this game? Well, the 49ers have one of the most impressive one-two combos in the backfield with Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. The pair combine to lead the NFL’s seventh-best rushing attack in terms of yards and third in terms of touchdowns. And those numbers are season-long figures and don’t really take into account the addition of Samuel into the backfield. He has been a touchdown machine for the 49ers with eight rushing touchdowns in his last nine games. 

The 49ers also have arguably the best tight end in the NFL, the best dual-threat FB in the league in Kyle Juszczyk, and a very strong offensive line led by Trent Williams. All of these are the best at their position and lead a team that was almost built for a playoff run.

So when you're thinking that Aaron Rodgers is only a 6-point favorite vs. a banged up 49ers team with a potentially limited Jimmy Garoppollo, just remember that that line may be a trap.

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