It's a Trap: Which NFL Odds are Most Deceiving in Week 6?

Last week, the Detroit Lions were nine-point underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings, but both teams stacked up close statistically. It appeared that this NFC North game would be closer than a nine-point spread, and sure enough, the Lions lost by only two points. Vikings’ kicker Greg Joseph would connect on a 54-yard field goal as time expired.

The New Orleans Saints defense had not been playing great and the Washington Football Team had been posting some high scoring totals since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback. The total in their Week 5 matchup was set at 44 and that seemed too low, and the Saints-Football Team contest would hit a total 55. 

The Denver Broncos were one-point underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and even though the Steelers appear to be trending downward, the Broncos upward trend has been artificially inflated by wins over the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets in the first three weeks. Pittsburgh took care of the Broncos at home, winning by eight points, 27-19.

Here are some lines that appear to be traps in Week 6, odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Minnesota Vikings (-0.0) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Vikings just beat the 0-5 Lions on a last second field goal, and now they’re in a pick’em game against the Carolina Panthers with a zero-point spread? I don’t like the look of that from Minnesota’s side.

Both offenses stack up closely, but Carolina’s defense has been well ahead of the Vikings’ defense; ranking first in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, eighth in rushing yards allowed per game, and averaging just 17.4 points against per game. Minnesota has been getting torched on the ground all season, and they could be in for a long game if Christian McCaffrey returns to the Panthers’ backfield. Even still, Chuba Hubbard can do some damage.

Based on the quality of the defensive matchup, Carolina looks like at least a three-point favorite at home.

Houston Texans (+10) vs. Indianapolis Colts

Many people will think the Texans can hang within 10 points of Indianapolis, but teams get beat by more than 10 points quite often. No need to be wary of taking the Colts here.

Sure, Houston had a close three-point loss against the New England Patriots last week. But sandwiched in between that close loss and their big Week 1 win over the Jaguars are three losses by 10 or more points against the Cleveland Browns, Panthers, and Buffalo Bills.

Indianapolis blew a 25-9 lead over the Baltimore Ravens last week, so they’ll want to get back on track at home in Week 6.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Speaking of the Ravens, they are currently listed as three-point favorites over the Chargers. That seems a little off.

Jackson threw for 442 yards and four touchdowns against the Colts in a 31-25 overtime win last week, but that display won’t be duplicated against the Chargers seventh-ranked passing defense. Jackson could run all day though, as Los Angeles currently has the league’s worst rushing defense, allowing 157.6 rushing yards per game.

The Ravens defense just hasn’t been there, and they’ll have their hands full this week against Justin Herbert. Baltimore is allowing 315 passing yards per game (29th in the NFL) and Herbert should get the Chargers over the hump.

Did Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson have a performance so big against the Colts that it pushed them up as favorites over Los Angeles? I think so.

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