It’s a Trap: Which NFL Week 18 Spreads are Most Deceiving?
By Ben Heisler
It's the final week of the NFL's regular season, which means we've got a combination of meaningless games, matchups where one team needs it and the other is done, and the most interesting of scenarios: two teams actually playing for a playoff spot on Sunday Night Football between the Chargers and Raiders.
As always, oddsmakers set the lines in hopes of getting as much even money on both sides as possible so they can profit off the vig, or cut from the bets made. But which lines could pose as a possible trap for bettors in the final week of the season?
Let's explore the latest odds at WynnBET for the Week 18 NFL slate, and see if we can identify the biggest trap games of the week from the oddsmakers.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+15)
At 2-14, the Jaguars would secure the No. 1 spot in the NFL Draft for the second consecutive year after taking quarterback Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in 2021. While they're absolutely incentivized to tank, there's.
Multiple reports this week indicate that thousands of Jaguars fans will be dressing up to TIAA Bank Field in clown costumes to protest owner Shad Khan's decision to retain General Manager Trent Baalke, which may actually motivate the players to come out and put on a better performance.
Meanwhile, for as much as the Colts need this game, they just need to win, not cover. They've also had issues vs. the Jaguars; having not beaten them in Jacksonville since 2014. One astounding stat that came up is in the last 33 games, Jacksonville is 2-2 vs. the Colts, and 2-27 vs. the rest of the league.
I think the oddsmakers expect this game to be closer than it should and are leaning on the public to back the heavy favorite.
LEAN: Jaguars +15
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans (+10)
Similar to the other AFC South matchup between the Colts and Jags, the Titans-Texans game is another scenario that the public is likely to heavily back the big favorite in Tennessee.
With a win, Tennessee controls their own destiny and locks up the top spot in the AFC. This would be extraordinarily beneficial for them considering they've designated Derrick Henry to return injured reserve.
The Texans have already handed Tennessee a 22-13 loss this year in their home stadium; after a bye week no less! We've also seen this line move heavily towards Houston after being as high as +11.5 early on.
This line feels a bit deceptive towards trying to get more money on the side of the Titans; who like the Colts, just need a win to get in.
PICK: Texans +10
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (-6)
In our weekly "Early Leans and Best Bets" video, Reed Wallach made a really interesting argument for why the Bengals, despite sitting Joe Burrow and several starters this week should still be favored over the Browns in the final week of the season:
"I think Kevin Stefanski plans on tanking and improving the Browns' draft position. They're right inside the mix to get in the top 10. We've seen how analytically driven Stefanski is, the Browns front office is, I think the Browns plan on losing this game...
The Bengals aren't tanking; they're just sitting their best players."
WIth a complete shift from the Bengals opening up as 6-point favorites at WynnBET, public bettors are most likely to side with the newly-heavily favored Browns to try and salvage some part of their miserable season.
I'll side on the opposite side, as the Bengals still have something to play for.
PICK: Bengals +6