'It’s a Trap' - Which Week 1 College Football Odds are Most Deceiving?

When oddsmakers put together odds for upcoming college football games, their goal isn't necessarily to get the number perfect. In large part, the objective is to find a number that will bring in 50% of the money so that the sportsbook guarantees themselves a profit off the "juice," or price the bettor puts in to place the bet. In most cases, -110 odds are fairly standard (bet $110 to win $100).

However, each week, there are several games where oddsmakers may lay a larger than expected number, knowing they're almost guaranteed to take more action on one team than another, and in turn, incentivize bettors to consider the other side.

Below are two "trap lines" I've identified for Week 1 of college football. Odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Fresno State vs. Oregon (-20.5) | TOTAL: 64.0

The Bulldogs are an underrated team in the Mountain West, with coach Kalen DeBoer now in his second season after coming over as the offensive coordinator at Indiana University. DeBoer runs a pass-heavy offense that finished amongst the best in the nation a season ago.

Oregon, however, is the class of the Pac 12 division this year and is also at home. At the same time, they have a potential concern at the most important position, as quarterback Anthony Brown had to hold off true freshman Ty Thompson throughout camp.

It's almost impossible to have a trap game to start the season, but don't forget the Ducks travel to Columbus next weekend to play Ohio State. An early 11:00 am PT kickoff this week feels a bit peculiar as well.

I expect the Bulldogs to be able to cover in the early start as the betting public runs to get the Ducks at just under a three-touchdown spread. I like Fresno State to cover the 1st Half at +10.5 even more.

No. 23 Louisiana (Lafayette) vs. No. 21 Texas (-8.5) | TOTAL: 58.5

Our Peter Dewey wrote a full preview for this matchup over at BetSided earlier in the week and discussed the amount of upperclassman returning for Louisiana this season. On offense, everyone except for their two starting running backs.

Texas has a ton of pressure with both a new head coach in Steve Sarkisian, as well as coming off a massive offseason involving their future move to the SEC. The spotlight is on them, and I don't envy that position at all to start the year.

The consensus line for this game opened all the way at Texas -16.5, so to see sportsbooks drop this number down to just over one possession is significant. Casual bettors looking to wager on this matchup Saturday morning will see a difference of two spots in the AP rankings and an extra 8.5-points to back them up... it almost feels like free money, right? Not so fast.

Bettors may still have Lousiana's upset win over last year's darling Iowa State team fresh in their mind and are willing to take their chances on an experienced Rajun Cajun roster for the upset. I think the oddsmakers want you to believe Louisiana has a shot too, but I think the Longhorns can cover, especially if it falls down to 8 or below before kickoff.

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