It's a Trap: Which Week 17 NFL Odds are Most Deceiving?

Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury despite his second half struggles, still has the best record ATS as a road underdog in three seasons.
Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury despite his second half struggles, still has the best record ATS as a road underdog in three seasons. / Michael Chow-Arizona Republic / USA

Let's explore the latest odds at WynnBET for the Week 17 NFL slate, and see if we can identify the biggest trap games of the week from the oddsmakers.

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears (-6)

Perhaps you joined myself and BetSided's Peter Dewey for last Thursday's episode of our podcast "Bet & Breakfast." If you didn't, that's ok, you can download it here, but when asked which matchup was our biggest NFL fade of the week, this game without hesitation is at the top of my list.

Both teams are atrocious vs. the spread this year, with Chicago at 5-10-0 ATS and New York 6-9-0. The Bears are back to starting Andy Dalton this week, despite getting their first substantive win in weeks with Nick Foles under center vs. the Seahawks (Justin Fields remains sidelined with an injury).

Meanwhile, the Giants are trotting out some sort of mix of Mike Glennon and/or Jake Fromm, who between the two quarterbacks, have been even less productive than the Bears; and Chicago owns the 28th-ranked offense overall in the league.

The weather in Chicago is not supposed to be good. The wind chill will likely be in the teens with wind gusts of 10-20 mph by the lake. That's not good for two offenses who have done nothing all season.

While I'll personally be looking to fade this game entirely, oddsmakers are hoping recency bias holds strong and that the public backs the Bears after their comeback in Seattle last week; as they've moved the line up two points since opening.

LEAN: Giants +6 (-110) AND UNDER 36

Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6)

If these two teams were playing in the first half of the season, public bettors would have been torn on where to go. Along with the Packers, no team was better covering the spread than both the Cardinals and Cowboys.

However, since the second half began, for the third straight season under Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona is falling apart. They've lost three straight games, along with their comfortable lead in the division over the Los Angeles Rams, and now head to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team that 's 5-2-0 ATS at home.

Seems like the perfect spot to back the Cowboys, right?

Instead, I'm going to let the line continue to climb with "America's team" getting public support from where they opened at -5.5. While the Cardinals' issues are noteworthy, it's also important to consider Kingsbury's success as a road underdog in his NFL career. Kingsbury in 17 games has gone 12-3-2 ATS as an underdog away from home.

Both teams have plenty to play for, but Dallas just needs a win to remain in contention for the top spot in the NFC (assuming Green Bay loses over the next few weeks).

I like the Cowboys to win, but as this number keeps climbing, I'd advise not falling for the trap and backing the Cardinals to keep it close.

PICK: Cardinals +6 (-110)

Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+3)

I've self-admittedly fallen for the Steelers earlier in the week for a plethora of different reasons.

Ben Roethlisberger is undefeated at home in his career vs. Cleveland, Kevin Stefanski can't cover vs. the division, and no coach has been better as a home underdog than Mike Tomlin going all the way to when he first started in 2007. There's also the narrative of Big Ben playing in his (most likely) final regular season game at home on Monday night.

Yet if all of these things hold true, how come the line is yet to move since opening with the Steelers -3 at WynnBET? Additionally, the oddsmakers are pretty much encouraging bettors to take Pittsburgh's side, with the Steelers +3 at even odds (+100), and the Browns (-3) at -120 odds on the other side.

Here's why. The Browns will run all day on the Steelers and Pittsburgh will likely have no answer for it. No team over the past three weeks has given up more yards on the ground than the Steelers and the Browns will have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt healthy and ready to exploit the matchup.

I'm already on record of betting Pittsburgh +3 earlier in the week, and now I'm debating hedging out, so heed the warning now and consider the other side of the trap.

PICK: Browns -3 (-120)