Jacksonville Jaguars 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

Jacksonville’s season started off with one of the more entertaining comeback wins of the 2020 regular season. Sadly, Week 1 provided the only winning moment for the Jaguars until the end of the season when they had won the No. 1 overall pick to select quarterback Trevor Lawrence out of Clemson in the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Gardner Minshew, the beloved mustached quarterback was benched midway through the season for a combination of Jake Luton and Mike Glennon, and the once vaunted Jaguars defense was torched all season long, giving up no less than 24 points since their 27-20 Week 1 win over Indianapolis.

After head coach Doug Marrone was let go, Jacksonville went outside the box hiring former Ohio State and Florida coach Urban Meyer two years out of his second retirement. The 57-year old coach is a three-time Division I college football champion, going a remarkable 187-32 during his college career, but will be making his maiden voyage in the professional ranks.

Luckily for Meyer, he’ll be armed with a generational quarterback prospect in Lawrence, who has been compared to quarterback prospects like Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and John Elway by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. 

He also brought in his former Florida and Heisman trophy winning quarterback Tim Tebow. But that's really all that's worth writing about.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 Outlook

Jacksonville finished the season 30th in offense, and this was despite a breakout year for running back James Robinson who rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2020. He’ll face competition this season with a late first round pick in Travis Etienne, but both players present a quality backfield to add to new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s game plan along with another former Urban Meyer coached player in running back Carlos Hyde.

The receiving core of D.J. Chark, Keelan Cole and rookie Laviska Shenault Jr. turned in solid seasons as well, but it was the inconsistency at the signal caller position that kept their years in the low floor range, rather than a high ceiling. The addition of Lawrence as an immediate starter should immediately bring up the level of competition in the receivers room. Longtime Lions receiver Marvin Jones adds another outside deep threat to the mix with Cole leaving in free agency.

On the defensive side of the ball, Joe Schobert and Myles Jack played well in the linebacking core, but after that there wasn’t much success after that for Jacksonville’s 31st overall ranked defense. The good news is the Jaguars brought in new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen from the Baltimore Ravens, switching to a 3-4 system to help add more pressure to opposing quarterbacks. Jacksonville was one of the worst teams in getting to the quarterback with only 18 sacks, so the additions of Malcom Brown via trade, as well as the signings of Roy Robertson-Harris and Jihad Ward should make a meaningful impact up front.

In the secondary, the signing of longtime Seahawks corner Shaquill Griffin should add some stability at the position, and should make for a decent pairing with last year's first round pick CJ Henderson. Former Chargers safety Rayshawn Jenkins could also play a meaningful role.

Jacksonville Jaguars 2021 NFL Draft

The Jaguars spent their top two picks in the first round on the offensive side of the ball; snagging Lawrence No. 1 overall out of Clemson, and then his teammate in running back Travis Etienne. Etienne may not start the season as a three-down back, but has plenty of talent to eventually wrestle the gig away from the undrafted Robinson despite his terrific 2020 campaign. Meanwhile, Lawrence is already the favorite at WynnBET to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

In the second round, Jacksonville addressed another major issue on defense with Georgia cornerback Tyson Campbell, as well as shoring up their offensive line with Stanford tackle Walker Little. Other notable picks included safety Andre Cisco in the third round out of Syracuse, defensive tackle Jay Tufele out of USC, and Ohio State tight end Luke Farrell in the fifth round.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Division (+750), Conference (+6000), Super Bowl (+12500)

Jacksonville, while substantially improved from the 2020 season, still holds long odds in all three major futures categories for 2021. They sit way behind both the Titans (-150), and Colts (+160) for AFC South division odds at +750, with Houston even further back at +2500.

To win the AFC, the Jaguars currently hold +6000, or 60/1 odds to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, and are 125/1 to win the championship in Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence’s first year.

Jacksonville Jaguars Regular Season Win Total: 6 WINS | OVER (-135), UNDER (+115)

Ben Heisler:

If Trevor Lawrence is receiving actual comps to some of the greatest quarterbacks ever, shouldn't we at least hold him accountable to a very solid rookie season? I went back and looked at Luck's rookie year in 2012 when the Colts went 11-5. Luck was very good for a rookie, but wasn't anything special, tossing 23 TDs, 18 INTs, and threw for 273.4 yards/game.

Lawrence doesn't have the same type of luxuries that Luck did that year, but I think there are plenty of offensive weapons around him that could put Jacksonville in the middle of the pack in the NFL.

D.J. Chark is now entering his third year in the league and presents a matchup nightmare for most opposing corners with his size and speed. Laviska Shenault is a fascinating weapon over the middle of the field, and Marvin Jones even at age 31 can still get downfield quickly, causing defensives to have to add safety help over the top to account for him.

With a solid run game getting better with the Travis Etienne draft pick paired up with James Robinson, I really think the Jags on offense can stay in the bulk of their games this season. Where I keep my remaining concerns is on the defensive side of the ball.

Recovering from a 31st ranked defense traditionally doesn't happen overnight, but they put the bulk of their emphasis on an improved pass rush that will take more pressure off an inconsistent secondary. The addition of veterans like Shaquill Griffin and Rayshawn Jenkins should help, but this is still a team in need of plenty of seasoning and reps to improve.

Ultimately, I think the offense carries this team in not so stable division, and a last place schedule should also ease the burden. The Jags in Urban Meyer's first year exceed expectations, but not by more than a win or so. I'll take the over on "6" for a total of "7."

PREDICTION: OVER (-135)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 7 WINS (+450)

Donnavan Smoot:

Jacksonville now has Trevor Lawrence, the second coming of “Sunshine” from “Remember the Titans," and they should be excited about the future.

Just not this year.

The Jaguars aren’t as bad as their 1-15 record from last season would suggest. They have weapons and lost a lot of close games last season. Seven of their 15 losses were one-possession losses.

Last year, Jacksonville had the 30th-ranked scoring offense and the 31st-ranked scoring defense. The Jaguars weren’t a good team, but they were still able to remain competitive, to an extent.

The Jaguars are starting their rebuild with Lawrence and Urban Meyer as the centerpieces of its franchise. With Travis Etienne Jr. and Laviska Shenault set to have breakout years, alongside D.J. Chark and James Robinson, the Jaguars have pieces to raise their offensive floor. 

Jaguar fans should expect a lot of wins this season. Despite the AFC South turning into a one team show, they're not in a position to take advantage of the situation. The main goal should be to develop Lawrence and keep him healthy. 

I see a bit of a bounce back year for Jacksonville. Honestly, when you win only one game, the only place to really go is up. Jacksonville will be better in 2021, just not good. 

PREDICTION: UNDER (+115)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 5 WINS (+450)

Peter Dewey: 

Trevor Lawrence is here to save the Jaguars, and he’s got his sidekick with him… Tim Tebow. 

All jokes aside, Lawrence and Urban Meyer are both looking to make an immediate impact in their first season in Jacksonville, but the Jags are projected just six wins on WynnBET. Jacksonville lost 15 consecutive games to end the 2020 season and earn the right to draft Lawrence, but does he make them that much better in 2021? 

I certainly don’t think they’ll be competing for the No. 1 pick, but the Jaguars have some serious holes on defense still after allowing the second-most yards in the NFL in 2020. 

Shaquill Griffin will help improve the secondary, but the Jags are going to be counting on a lot of young guys stepping up. Myles Jack and Joe Schobert are a solid pair at linebacker, and Josh Allen is looking to take the next step as one of the league’s top pass rushers after appearing in just eight games last season. 

Also, Meyer is a wild card as a first-year head coach. Last year, Joe Judge and Matt Rhule both saw their teams struggle in their first season, while Kevin Stefanski’s Cleveland Browns (a much better team than Jacksonville when he took over) made the playoffs. 

I think the Jags will be better, but I’m still taking the under on their win projection at +115 odds. Lawrence can’t play defense too, and it’s unreasonable to think the rookie will completely change the team in one season. 

PREDICTION: PUSH

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 6 WINS (+400)

Iain MacMillan:

I’ve been sitting on a take that for the past two years I’ve been terrified to release out in the open, but now’s as good of a time as ever to release it. I think Trevor Lawrence is overrated.

Now, is he a good quarterback? Absolutely. Does he have potential to have a great career? Sure. But he is the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck? I’m not buying it. I’m not even sure if he’s going to be the best quarterback of this draft class.

I’m willing to admit this take may look idiotic in eight months time, but I’m sticking to it for now. I don’t think the Jaguars are going to take a significant leap forward this season with Lawrence under center, and I’m not even convinced if Urban Meyer is going to be a good NFL coach.

The (arguably) greatest coach in college football history, Nick Saban, didn’t pan out in the NFL so who’s to say that Meyer will?

Then there’s the Jacksonville defense. They allowed an average of 30.8 points and 417.7 yards per game last season, both of which were the second worst marks in the league. They didn’t do enough this offseason to convince me that we will see any significant improvement in those areas.

The Jaguars will once again be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

PREDICTION: UNDER 6 WINS (+115)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 3 WINS (+1500)

Will the Jacksonville Jaguars Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-440), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+300)

Ben Heisler: 

I'm alone in the BetSided camp of expecting Jacksonville to be fairly competitive, but I still don't anticipate a return to the postseason in year 1 of the Urban Meyer era.

There's too many holes that can be fixed over the next few seasons, particularly up front and in the secondary. Offensively, I think this team has a chance to be really exciting with the types of skill position players they already have on the roster.

A seven-win season, while 7x better than 2020, will feel good for Jaguars fans looking towards the future. But the immediate future will not include a postseason trip in 2021-2022.

PREDICTION: NO (-440)

Donnavan Smoot:

Playoffs shouldn’t even be on the table of possibilities for the Jaguars. This is a team that is trying to wash off the stench of a one-win season. They need to be focused on the future and seeing what kind of players they have. 

Even if they become the luckiest team in the world, it wouldn’t be enough. A rookie quarterback paired with a coach that’s new to the NFL and a roster filled with question marks is not the best recipe for success. 

I’ll see you in three years, Jacksonville. Maybe.

PREDICTION: NO (-440)

Peter Dewey: 

With Carson Wentz hurt, the AFC South is up for the taking as the Tennessee Titans have jumped into the top spot in the odds to win the division at -130. 

Still, I don’t think this leaves a path for the Jaguars to make the playoffs. They aren’t better than three of the AFC North teams that made the postseason last year (Browns, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers) and one can expect that the Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers or New England Patriots could sneak in and steal the Colts’ spot this year. 

Lawrence would have to absolutely carry the team for the Jags to go from 1-15 to a playoff team, and while it’s possible, I’m not betting on that drastic of a turnaround in one season. 

PREDICTION: NO (-440)

Iain MacMillan:

If there’s one thing that’s in the Jaguars favor, it’s that the AFC South is expected to be the weakest division in the AFC. Especially so now that Carson Wentz may miss a portion of the season. They may not finish last in the division, as the Houston Texans are a complete shell of a football team ahead of the 2021 season.

I would be beyond shocked if the Jaguars make the playoffs. They have holes all over their roster, and as I said earlier, I’m not convinced that Trevor Lawrence is going to be a god on the football field like some people think.

If Jacksonville is in the playoffs, I’ll officially retire from hot takes for the rest of my career.

PREDICTION: NO (-440)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Check back Thursday at 1 p.m. EDT when we preview the betting outlook for the Houston Texans and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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